tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49395171128752476102023-12-27T22:57:40.443-08:00Maiza Strange's Art of ThinkingMethods of Thought for Great Detectives and StrategistsAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-12612000652872449322014-05-20T17:06:00.002-07:002014-05-20T17:06:29.669-07:00Who is the Strategist: A Book of Five Rings (Part 1)There are several concepts of what a "Strategist" is- the way in which a man masters the path to victory. Today, we will look at the conception of a strategist as conceived by Miyamoto Musashi.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/FBZMshe.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/FBZMshe.gif" height="150" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"Book of Five Rings"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The "Book of Five Rings" (Go Rin no Sho) is the masterpiece of Miyamoto Musashi, a legendary swordsman from Japan, who was active during 16th and 17th centuries (known as the Kyoto Renaissance). He fought from his youth to his old age without losing a match, and killing several opponents in duels, before becoming somewhat of a warrior poet and immersing himself into the more mental and spiritual part of combat rather than the physical. At the end of his life, he wrote this masterpiece that summed up his style and thought on strategy.<br />
<br />
Given that Musashi was a swordsman and duelist, his conception of a strategist and strategies tend to be more involved with clashes between individuals, rather than the movement and control of men (as opposed to Sun Tzu's Art of War). <br />
<br />
You can find a version of Musashi's masterpiece <a href="http://www.bookoffiverings.com/">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Content and Organization</h2>
<br />
Musashi divides his book into five parts, named after traditional religious principles that relate to meditation: They are Earth, Water, Fire, Wind, and Void. And each part relates to a specific topic or concept.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/y1acAdx.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/y1acAdx.png" /></a></div>
<br />
The <b>Earth </b>component is the introduction. It talks about the "way of martial arts" as well as Musashi's own style. It is important because it describes how Musashi believes one should practice the way of martial arts: by knowing the large you know the small, and by knowing the shallow you can know the deep.<br />
<br />
The <b>Water </b>chapter is about flexibility to circumstances. To understand the principles of swordsmanship so well that by defeating a single opponent, you defeat every opponent in the world. It should be noted here that he says defeating an opponent the wrong way, is not worthwhile. So victory alone isn't right, you need to win "the right way", only then can you become the one who can defeat every opponent by defeating one.<br />
<br />
The <b>Fire</b> component is about fighting. In this chapter, Musashi talks of the tactics and methods of combat, as well as the vigilance that is required. <br />
<br />
The <b>Wind</b> chapter is about "style". Musashi notes the importance of knowing the different methods and styles of other people. He notes that it is important because if you do not know your opponent, it is difficult to know yourself.<br />
<br />
The<b> Void/Emptiness</b> chapter talks of the value of "natural freedom". Once you know the principles of combat, you must be able to be natural and not constrict yourself. Great power and ability comes from natural movement, and from the ability to strike naturally and hit naturally.<br />
<br />
We will discuss each chapter, and then come to a conclusion to the type of strategist he wishes the reader to become. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-62236528748612787302014-05-17T16:34:00.000-07:002014-05-17T16:34:35.745-07:00Half-Blog post: Espanol current progress. I find that the best way to demonstrate understanding of something is to try and teach it. <br />
<br />
To test my proficiency (or lack thereof) of Spanish, i'm going to attempt to write this blog post in spanish (sorry about the lack of accents):<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Este es una entrada de blog que dice sobre mi progresos en aprendar espanol. En el mes anterior, aprende los conjugaciones de espanol verbos. Durante mi tiempo, Aprende los conjugaciones de "presente", "pasado", y "futuro". Pero no aprende muchos verbos o sustantivos.<br />
<br />
Para practice escribir espanol, yo enviaba textos a mi amigos y amigas en espanol. Necesitaba "google translate" para sabi los verbos y sustaintivos. Pero quieria usar mi cabeza para construir las sentencias. <br />
<br />
Cuando estoy leyendo los articulos espanol, yo entiendo el profundidad de espanol. Las sentencias de articulos de "BBC el Mundo" es muy diferente de mi sentencias. Los Articulos hablarian "cuando", "como", "donde", y con que emociones los eventos ocurrio.<br />
<br />
Entiendo no estoy el "Shakespeare" de Espanol. Mi Sentencias despues de un mes no es muy complejo. Pero, quiero estudiar los sentencias muy complejo para entendar mas. Entiendo los partes mas importante para aprendar.</blockquote>
<br />
<br />
If you didn't understand that, this is roughly what I said:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This is a blog post that talks about my progress in learning spanish. In the last month, I learned the conjuctions of spanish verbs. During my time, I learned the conjunctions of present, past, and future. But I didn't learn many verbs or nouns.<br />
<br />
For practice in writing spanish, I sent texts to my friends in spanish. I needed "google translate" for knowing the verbs and nouns. But I wanted to use my head to constuct sentences.<br />
<br />
When I read spanish articles, I understood the depth of spanish. The sentences of "BBC el Mundo" articles were really different from my sentences. The articles talked about "when", "how", "where", and with what emotions the events occurred.<br />
<br />
I understand that I'm not the "Shakespeare" of spanish. My sentences after a month are not very complex. But, I want to study complex sentences to understand more. I understand the parts that are most important to learn.</blockquote>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-77076247113478571112014-05-06T14:43:00.001-07:002014-05-06T14:43:06.133-07:00Learning 3 Languages in a Week: Day 3 Japanese and Spanish <br />
I've found a source for my Japanese articles. Unfortunately, its also presented me with a great deal more work. The source is <a href="http://news.google.co.jp/">http://news.google.co.jp/</a>, and sadly, the articles are written in a mix of kanji and katakana, of which I have issues.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Spanish</h2>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/CjbbRQ5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/CjbbRQ5.png" height="320" width="210" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Here is the next Spanish article in the meantime</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Here's time for review. Before I started devoting hours to learning an entire new alphabet (hiragana), I had begun to learn the grammar that structures sentences- given that nouns and verbs are so many (I didn't want to merely focus on vocabulary).<br />
<br />
<h2>
Learning How to Construct Sentences (Spanish)</h2>
<br />
Essentially, all sentences in English have a subject and a verb, whether apparent or implied. Given that English and Spanish are so similar (even though English is not a Romance language like Spanish), I've decided to treat it as being the same in that regard.<br />
<br />
Thus, I decided to first compile a list of pronouns to become familiar with. In English, we have things such as "Him, Her, He, She, Them, We..." because they show up so commonly.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/zuOpJ9L.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/zuOpJ9L.png" height="233" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Here is a list I stole from Wikipedia</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Additionally, I've also added two things:<br />
<ul>
<li>Esos- "These"</li>
<li>Estos/Aquellos - "Those"</li>
</ul>
To decipher this chart, i've made a few notes:<br />
<ul>
<li>Nominative- refers to naming who is doing the act (much like I, He, She, They, We)</li>
<li>Accusative- refers to the direct object (such as Him, Her, Them)</li>
<li>Dative- is similar to Accusative, but it is indirect rather than direct</li>
<li>Prepositional- Used for objects and complements (I can't find an english equivalent) </li>
<li>Comitative- Complementary uses that are preceded by "con" (with me, with her, with us) </li>
</ul>
In addition to this, I am complimenting my learning of the grammar with Television. I'm watching the BBC's special spanish learning program "Mi Vida Loco". Which, while a bit cheesy, is at least in spanish that I can follow.<br />
<br />
In the meantime, i've been trying to immerse myself in spanish sentence construction the best I can. I essentially communicate through text using spanish only- to the chagrin of my friends. <br />
<br />
<h2>
Japanese</h2>
I've taken a look at Katakana, and decided that despite it being longer than Hiragana, shares a lot of things in common. So perhaps I will be able to learn it more quickly this time. Update soon. <br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-74606483271694545272014-04-28T02:10:00.001-07:002014-04-28T02:13:43.778-07:00Learning 3 languages in a Month: Day 2 JapaneseMy original plan to use articles from the BBC has actually failed in a way. This is because, despite how many languages the BBC website has, it does not have Japanese nor Italian. As a result, I'm having to look for articles from other sources.<br />
<br />
Japanese will be a great deal more difficult for me than Spanish given my lack of exposure to it. I can understand a few phrases here and there thanks to watching several Studio Ghibli films with the subtitles on. However, reading it is an entirely different story, and I imagine learning the language (I'm going to be focusing on the phonetic portion of the language) will be VERY challenging. Unlike the languages with a latin root, I won't be able to rely on my knowledge of the roman alphabet.<br />
<br />
So in order to be able to read it, I would also have to learn a whole new alphabet.<br />
<br />
Following the advice of a native speaker, I began by learning Hiragana, part of the phonetic alphabet of Japanese. t is a sister form to Katakana.<br />
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/rvY8yg8.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/rvY8yg8.png" height="640" width="179" /></a><br />
<h3>
How Hiragana works</h3>
<br />
Having the "Hiragana base characters" helped me understand how it was structured.<br />
<ul>
<li>The column determines the first syllable- with the phi-symbol denoting a lack of first syllable</li>
<li>The row determines the second syllable. They are basically vowels.</li>
<li>Example: The sound of "Na" would be <span class="st">な. While the sound of "Ni" would be </span><span class="st">に. Together the sound "Nani" is written as </span><br /><span class="st">なに (which means "what" in Japanese).</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
I have a bit of a monumental task, as in order to read Japanese, i'll have to not only be able to recognize a whole new alphabet, but also have to learn how it is spoken. <br />
<br />
In order to memorize the alphabet, My plan is to begin by recognizing the available sounds: a, i, e, u, o. And the modifiers, k, s, t, n, h, m, y, r, w, and the rest. From there, i'll have to simply grind it out.<br />
<br />
I'll probably try to utilize a sort of mnemonic visualization technique to better retain the symbol's appearance. But i'm still uncertain of which one at this point; I'll experiment.<br />
<br />
<h2>
<b>Update: </b></h2>
I've fully memorized the 46 Hiragana characters, though I can't really recommend my method, as it did take about 5 hours to perform.<br />
<br />
Essentially I tackled the Hiragana 5 one row at a time. I had a few steps I considered with every set though<br />
<ol>
<li>I always began by writing out each 5 characters</li>
<li>I looked at each character and tried to associate the sound it made with something. For instance the symbol for the sound "a" reminded me a bit of an @ symbol. As such, in my mind I would associate the two ideas, which would help me recall it later on.</li>
<li>I tried to take note of general patterns that occurred. For example, how "Ru" and "Ro" look very similar, and how "ki", "sa", and "chi" were similar. As well as "ke", "ha" and "ho". </li>
<li>After finishing a new group of five, I would review the past sets that I already learned in order to practice and cement it in my head.</li>
<li>I also tried to make words and phrases when I could, writing out "Mu Sa Shi", or "Wa Ta Shi", "Su Ki Ya Ki" and "Ko Ni Chi Wa". The use of these helped me recall how the hiragana were written more than I expected the to.</li>
<li>I reviewed using flash cards- I would display the sounds and then write out the character, essentially training myself to be able to write on command. </li>
</ol>
<br />
<br />
Next Step: Grammar<br />
<br />
I plan to use a similar method that I am employing for Spanish.<br />
<ul></ul>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-3606128363545901082014-04-25T00:40:00.001-07:002014-04-28T02:14:51.371-07:00League Comprehensive History: How good is CJ Frost right now?<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/bUAc48l.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/bUAc48l.png" /></a></div>
If you've followed League of Legends and its professional scene, its hard not be aware of CJ Frost. The team, along with its sister team CJ Blaze, has a history of being one of the oldest and most prestigious League of Legends teams in the Korean scene of OGN. For those in the west, you probably remember them for taking 2nd in the second World Championships after losing to TPA.<br />
<br />
<h2>
The Old Kings</h2>
In Korea, CJ Frost are essentially one of the most popular teams in Korea along with SKT T1 K. They are essentially perceived as the "Old Kings", a team who has performed consistently well in the competitive scene since its creation. They won the first OGN (back when they were known as MiG Frost), and have historically placed highly in the brackets (only since OGN Winter 2013 have they fallen below 4th place); Up until a few seasons ago, there was not a single final without a CJ team-Blaze or Frost were always in the finals.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/u7Wfaha.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/u7Wfaha.jpg" height="401" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Left to Right: Shy, Rapidstar, Madlife, Woong, Cloudtemplar</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The most popular line up of Frost consisted of:<br />
<ul>
<li>Top-Shy</li>
<li>Jungle-Cloudtemplar</li>
<li>Mid-Rapidstar</li>
<li>ADC-Woong</li>
<li>Support-Madlife </li>
</ul>
(This was the team who recently played in the "All-Stars" match against EDG a month ago.)<br />
<br />
<h2>
The Fall of Frost</h2>
Frost has been traditionally a "Season 2 team", which means it was a team who excelled at teamfighting, and preferred champions who farmed heavily, and tried to draw the game out to late, and win through superior teamfighting. The style was similar to that of then CLG.eu. <br />
<br />
Unfortunately the meta-shifts have not boded well for the members of the team, and they have not adapted especially well. After the Season 2 world championships, their roster began to fall apart. It began with the departure of the "Tank ADC" Woong. Woong was not tauted to be a great mechanical ADC, and many perceived his replacement by Hermes to be something that would make Frost stronger. <br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/5kXyT95.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/5kXyT95.jpg" height="316" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The original Frost roster is begins to fall off</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
It was then that Rapidstar, the midlaner began to fall off. Rapidstar's champion pool consisted of heavy farm and slow moving mages such as Karthus, Anivia, and the occasional Diana. With the shift of the meta towards emphasizing early and mid game, Rapidstar had trouble adapting to the new champions. After a few subpar performances, Rapidstar was replaced by GankedbyMom, known as the world's greatest Orianna.<br />
<br />
Then, in the middle of Season 3, Cloudtemplar, the world's greatest "Herbivore jungler" left the team to pursue a career in casting. Cloudtemplar is perceived as one of the Korean scene's most articulate and intelligent players (hence his easy transition into casting). In fact, you can make the argument that his preferred champion pool helped define Frost's gameplay. Cloudtemplar was well known for playing junglers who had great teamfight potential and tanky stats: such as Amumu, Rammus, Skarner, and is known for his jungle Shen. Essentially, having a jungler who offered low pressure prior to 6 but strong pressure post-6 defined how the Frost lanes would play- they would try to play safe until Cloudtemplar hit 6, and then try to force teamfights after that. Cloudtemplar's playstyle and role on the team was unique, and when he left, Frost could not find an adequate replacement.<br />
<br />
<h2>
The Rebuilding</h2>
Late Season 3 and Early Season 4, Frost was not performing very well. Their original strengths were made obsolete and unattainable due to meta-shifts and roster changes. Frost was looking for a new identity.<br />
<br />
There were three roles that were constantly changing: Mid, Jungle, and ADC.<br />
<br />
In the Mid lane, Rapidstar's replacement Ganked by Mom wasn't performing up to par. In addition, his lack of a champion pool was problematic, as the enemy could easily force him into certain champions. He could essentially play Orianna, and Zed, and the rest of his champion pool was not as impressive. Frost picked up veteran player Maknoon, but unfortunately he wasn't able to perform adequately either.<br />
<br />
In the Jungle, CJ Blaze's jungler Helios moved over to Frost to replace Cloudtemplar. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to be the playmaker that Frost needed to be successful, often being unable to make plays and forced to gank or cover lanes. He was later replaced by Lira, who had similar problems. <br />
<br />
In bot lane, Woong had been replaced by Hermes, but was quickly replaced by Space after a few poor performances. Space began as a very aggressive player, but later began to play in a style similar to Najin Sword's Pray- who focused on synchronized play with the rest of the team.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/iTKUyU9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/iTKUyU9.jpg" height="288" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This was Frost's roster for a bit. (Left to right): Shy, Rapidstar, Madlife, Ganked by Mom, Helios, Maknoon, Space</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Frost had an issue of weak mid laners and junglers, which allowed for enemies to take huge advantages over them in early and mid game. While Frost was still able to make it out of groups occasionally through a lucky match up against weaker groups, they were unable to reach their former glory.<br />
<br />
At the start of Spring 2014, Frost dropped its midlaners and junglers in favor of new players newly released from Korean team Xenic's Storm: Coco and Swift. The pair had strong synergy (important for Mid and Jungle) and were able to carry Xenics Storm through several games.<br />
<br />
The new roster consisted of:<br />
<ul>
<li>Top-Shy</li>
<li>Jungle-Swift</li>
<li>Mid- Coco</li>
<li>ADC- Space</li>
<li>Support- Madlife</li>
</ul>
This new roster has changed Frost's identity greatly. <br />
<h2>
A New Identity</h2>
The addition of Coco and Swift changed CJ Frost's identity greatly. Given the aggression of Coco and Swift, the whole field of play changed.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/KXilmxP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/KXilmxP.jpg" height="320" width="318" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Coco, the mage carry. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Coco is a very aggressive and mechanically skilled player. His Kassadin (named Cocodin) was reputed for good reason, and he holds one of the highest KDA's in the game because of it. His repitoire seems to consist of Kassadin (pre-rework), Nidalee, Ziggs, and Leblanc. His play has been on point, and he often makes plays with the support of the jungler swift. So far, he is probably one of the best players on Frost's roster.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/nwb96G7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/nwb96G7.jpg" height="232" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Swift, the playmaker</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Similarly, Swift is also a very aggressive player. Unlike the other junglers of Frost, he prefers to play aggressive junglers who invade and kill the enemy jungler: such as Lee Sin and Kha'ziks. His Lee Sin play is to be feared, as he has the Insec kick down to a tee, and his picks have won them games. He and his partner Coco have essentially carried games for Frost by applying enormous pressure. He often aids top lane and gets Shy rolling, and has made Mundo a terrible pick against Frost due to their skill in diving Mundo early game. <br />
<br />
<br />
Perhaps due to the amount of pressure being placed by the Jungler and Mid lane, Shy has begun to awaken in top lane. Shy has been considered one of Korea's greatest top laners along with his equivalent on Blaze, Flame. During the early season, he struggled to carry on Mundo and the other tanky top laners, but as of late he has found his place on Shyvana, and the revitalized Jax. In essence, he has hit "Flame-status", by getting several kills on the enemy team early, and then reaching a massive CS lead, while also pushing down all the top towers and solo-killing the enemy top laner or jungler.<br />
<br />
Despite what you might expect, Bot-lane is probably Frost's least exciting lane. They are not necessarily bad, but they aren't necessarily strong either. Part of the reason is Frost often neglects its bot lane, preferring to use the jungler to snowball top and mid lane early on. This means that Space and Madlife will often choose to farm safely in fear of being ganked. Madlife, though known for hi clutch plays, is not especially active in the early game. The ADC, Space has recently discovered talent in playing Jinx as well as Twitch, but often falls behind in farm from being zoned out. Frost's botlane isn't often seen dominating the lane with aggression, and will usually not make plays unless they have support nearby.<br />
<br />
These new changes have shifted Frost's focus and gameplay from a late-game and teamfight focused team to an early/mid-game focused team who focuses on ganks and picks.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Recent Performance</h2>
Frost has had one season with this roster, both in Champions and in Masters. In Masters Frost has not lost a game since Week 3, when they lost against SKT TI K. They have an upcoming series against Samsung, who they have a losing record against. However, winning in masters isn't considered very telling, as it doesn't give circuit points; as a result, teams often don't take it as seriously. <br />
<br />
In OGN Spring 2014, they were placed in Group B, made up of generally weak teams, and placed second in the group, only dropping two games to Samsung Ozone. They made it out of groups in second place. Subsequently, they were placed against Samsung Blue and lost in a 3-1 loss. They have recently dropped down to NLB, and managed to defeat SKT TI S in a 2-0. Later this week, they will play SKT TI K in a bout to determine who proceeds to the finals for NLB.<br />
<br />
Its uncertain how strong CJ Frost is at the moment. For certain, no
one believes that Frost in its current form is a dominating team. While
they have had fantastic games against strong teams such as Ozone,
Shield, and even beaten teams like SKT S, its apparent that they aren't
fully cohesive yet.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/iR0ZpBs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/iR0ZpBs.png" height="220" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Frost sometimes gets over eager.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
Frost's Playstyle</h3>
Frost's playstyle is different from the teams of last season, in that they don't "control" games in the way that KTB or SKT does. Instead, their style relies on constant skirmishes and picks. Its a style that depends heavily on mechanical skill, and is actually quite risky- since a lost teamfight gives up a great deal of momentum.<br />
<br />
Their team's success currently depends heavily on their midlaner and jungler providing a great deal of pressure early on- forcing the enemy jungler and midlaner to respond. This allows Shy to fight in a 1v1, and crush the enemy top laner in traditional CJ fashion- occasionally Swift will babysit the top lane to get Shy rolling. When it comes to midgame, Frost depends heavily on small skirmishes to force picks and fights in their favor.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/jMOoN6I.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/jMOoN6I.png" height="225" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The name of the game is Picks. Take down a single champion then proceed to roll over objectives</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Its an interesting style, but it relies heavily on their mechanics rather than decision making, and often relies on somewhat risky warding for map control (Madlife has been caught out several times due to this). Additionally, this is a style that is weak against teams who have very good map awareness and warding (a la Ozone and Blue).<br />
<h3>
Significance of Farming</h3>
<br />
I believe that Frost still depends on that winning teamfight, and still goes out of its way to prepare for it. <br />
<br />
The interesting thing about Frost is that it will often isolate its carries, and send them to farm. This is quite often Shy in top lane, where he power shoves the lane and tries to outplay the enemy laner, but sometimes Space is left alone in botlane to farm, while the rest of the team does something else. Even when the lane is pushed in, Shy will still stay top lane, and similarly, Space will stay bottom to get the farm.<br />
<br />
This is significant, because it means that Frost isn't aiming to merely take objectives through besieging the turrets. They want to take objectives through kills and skirmishes. In this sense, Frost is not an objective based team-they are still a teamfight oriented team.<br />
<br />
Frost aims to win the game by having more gold, better teamfighting, and stronger champions. This is opposed to KTB last season, who would do their fast-push strategy, focusing on taking objectives over kills.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h2>
CJ Frost vs. SKT TI K</h2>
If this was last season, I would say SKT 100%. But this season, CJ Frost has improved greatly, while SKT TI K is on tilt with Bengi, Impact, and Poohmandu performing much weaker than they did the season before.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/cuf5rLW.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/cuf5rLW.jpg" height="160" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Fallen Kings(left to right) Piglet, Bengi, Poohmandu, Impact, Faker</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As far as match-ups go. I believe it currently looks like this:<br />
<ul>
<li>Top Lane: Shy=Impact</li>
<ul>
<li>While Shy might get his beloved Jax, Impact has been playing well with Renekton (often perceived as the counter to Jax). I basically expect the lanes to be Shyvanna and Renekton so long as neither is banned out.</li>
</ul>
<li>Jungle: Swift > Bengi</li>
<ul>
<li>Its hard to argue with this one. Swift's performance and mechanics have been on point this season, while Bengi seems to be struggling. The Lee Sin will be the real contested pick here, Swift is very dangerous on it. Another pick that we might see is Kha'ziks.</li>
</ul>
<li>Midlane: Coco<Faker</li>
<ul>
<li>Coco has been performing very well, but Faker has been performing
well despite how K has been doing. Coco wasn't able to stop Dade, and I
believe it might be similar with Faker. However, if Faker does not
rotate (unlikely) the lane may go even. I expect Coco to fall back on either Ziggs or Leblanc. Faker's champion pool is too large to be able to fully predict what he'll bring out.</li>
</ul>
<li>ADC: Space< Piglet </li>
<ul>
<li> As of late, Space has been preferring to use Jinx, a champion that Piglet doesn't really play, and while Jinx is very strong late game, she is not the greatest duelist champion. So if Piglet goes for Vayne and isn't punished for it, Piglet might win this match up. I also expect Twitch to be a contested pick out of both ADCs.</li>
</ul>
<li>Support: Madlife=Poohmandu</li>
<ul>
<li>The two supports have similar champion pools at this point, both preferring playmaking champions: Leona, Thresh, Zyra, Alistar. Currently, I don't believe there to be a large difference in skill level between these two.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
Overall, in a best of 3, I believe it will end up a 2:1 in the favor of SKT K. Despite how far Frost has come, I believe that SKT K has a better sense of map control and team unity. With that said, if Frost is allowed their way, it could easily fall in Frost's favor. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-64613917125009219952014-04-24T17:22:00.000-07:002014-04-24T23:42:04.013-07:00Learning 3 Languages in a Month- Day 1 SpanishFor the first day of the project, I've decided to start with the language I'm most familiar with: Spanish.<br />
<br />
To start, I picked up an article from the spanish BBC website, and planned my steps:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/VOuGfi3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/VOuGfi3.png" height="254" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The article in question</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
To begin, I wanted to have this project be steeped in practicality, so I would judge my success by whether or not I could comprehend what was being said in the article. Additionally, I intended to focus more on the "structure of the words" first, rather than worrying about vocabulary with the verbs and nouns.<br />
<br />
So my first step was to eliminate the words in the article that looked like nouns and verbs. This is something I probably wouldn't be able to do if I didn't have SOME understanding of Spanish. I'll probably have to develop a new method when approaching Italian and Japanese. I went though and crossed out the words that I recognized as nouns and verbs (some were easy with "el presidente", and others were a bit more questionable).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/hL80MsX.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/hL80MsX.png" height="320" width="243" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I made a lot of mistakes (obvious ones) but its meant to be rough anyways</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
From there, I began to look up the meaning of each of the conjunctions. My hope was that I would get a very rough structure of the sentences. I was hoping there wasn't too many strange grammatical changes.<br />
<br />
I compiled a list of grammar just from the first paragraph<br />
<br />
<b>"Y"</b>: and<br />
<b>que:</b> that, than<br />
<b>que (accent):</b> what<br />
<b>desde</b>: from<br />
<b>desde que</b>: Since<br />
<b>en</b>: in<br />
<b>de</b>: of<br />
<b>han</b>: have<br />
<b>sido</b>: was<br />
<b>han sido</b>: have been<br />
<b>del</b>: of<br />
<b>pais</b>: parents<br />
<b>del pais</b>: the country<br />
<b>mas (accent)</b>: more<br />
<b>durante:</b> during<br />
<b>cualquier: </b>any<br />
<b>otra: </b>other<br />
<br />
Roughly the first paragraph would say:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"and its since obama.....en...of.. of two...have been...the country, more than during any other ....in..."</blockquote>
<br />
Not especially helpful. At this point, I'm considering doing a translation of the English grammatical terms, just so I can recognize them when they come up. But first, I decide to take the first paragraph without the crossed out words and see if I could make sense of them:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"And its since obama <i>illego</i> <i>a la</i> white house in <i>enero </i>of 2009, <i>alrededor</i> of two million of <i>indocumentados </i>have been <i>expulsados</i> the country, more than during any other presidency in the history of the north american <i>nacion.</i>"</blockquote>
After putting in the verbs and nouns in, the grammar started to help make more sense. I could even begin to guess what what going on:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Since obama "illego" (probably entered) the white house in "enero" (probably a month, most likely january) of 2009. Alredador (this term denotes an amount, like "many" or "all") of two million indocumentados (likely immigrants without papers/documents) have been expulsados (looks like the word "expelled") from the country. More than any other presidency in the history of the north american nation. </blockquote>
I looked up the terms:<br />
<br />
<b>illego:</b> came<br />
<b>enero:</b> january<br />
<b>Alredador: </b>around<br />
<b>indocumentados:</b> undocumented (duh)<br />
<b>expulsados:</b> expelled<br />
<br />
Not too bad, if I say so myself<br />
<h3>
Plan</h3>
After the little attempt of today, I've decided to compile a list of "grammar" terms that denoted things like the relation of nouns to one another, and the placement of things. Its going to be split into two sections:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>The first section is purely meant to be a list of terms that help string words together- showing their relation to one another. These include things like articles "a, the", conjunctions such as "and, but, because, however", as well as others.</li>
<li>The second section of the list will be terms that help determine things like "time" and "place" in terms of relation. So for instance "before, since, after" are words that determine "WHEN" things happened in respect to another event. Complimentary, terms like "underneath, inside, above, around, and between" determine the position of things in respect to another. </li>
</ol>
The reason is because I feel that these are central and core to a language, and really help determine the way in which we communicate. There was a famous philosopher (probably Kant, its always Kant) who noted that we must put things in terms of a "space" and a "time" in order to fully comprehend it. If this is true, then all languages must be able to communicate space and time. Thus, why not pick up on the ways it conveys it now? <br />
<br />
In the meantime, I will look for a potentially exhaustive list of the spanish articles, conjunctions, and pronouns, as well as descriptors of time and place. If I can't find it, i'll make one myself.<br />
<br />
Edit: found a nice site for grammar <a href="http://www.spanishdict.com/topics">here </a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-21849648351418854322014-04-24T16:16:00.004-07:002014-04-24T16:16:59.530-07:00Learning 3 Languages in a MonthFor a long time now, I've wanted to expand my language base and become truly "Multi-lingual", while at the same time experimenting with my mnemonic technique skillset. Essentially, I intend to discover the best way for me to reach a certain degree of language proficiency in a short amount of time.<br />
<h3>
The Goal</h3>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/VOuGfi3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/VOuGfi3.png" height="253" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An example of an article in Spanish off the BBC</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
For this initial experiment, the goal is:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"<i>To be able to read an article written in the language</i>". </blockquote>
<br />
For this experiment, I'll be using articles posted on the BBC, which is supposedly meant to be internationally accessible. <br />
<br />
<h3>
The Languages</h3>
The three languages I will initially be dealing with are:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Spanish (Mexican varient)</b></li>
<li><b>Japanese</b></li>
<li><b>Italian</b></li>
</ul>
At the moment, I have some proficiency in Spanish, and some understanding of Japanese. However, I have very little exposure to Italian. <br />
<h3>
<br /></h3>
<h3>
How to will I go about this?</h3>
<br />
This really is the question, and I am actually not certain of the best approach. But I have a few things in mind while going into this:<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Don't focus on memorizing vocabulary</b>: While vocabulary shows proficiency in a language, it isn't necessarily the most important thing to know when trying to understand what is being said. Heck, I still run into words in english that I don't recognize all the time, but am often able to intuit what it means.</li>
<li><b>Start with the grammar</b>: I'm referring to the conjunctions like "and, but, because", as well as other grammatical terms. We use these to construct ALL our sentences, so getting a good grasp of it early is important. </li>
<li><b>Don't anchor the new language to one you already know</b>: Has anyone ever asked you "do you think in English?" It alludes to the idea that your understanding of other languages is rooted in your mother language. As a result, you'll often find that you'll have to formulate your thoughts in english first, before translating them into the native language. Its necessary at times, but not ideal. For vocabulary, you might be better off rooting them in images. </li>
<li><b>Immerse yourself in it</b>: The quickest way to learn a language is to immerse yourself in it- whether by being forced to use it, or by constantly using it.</li>
<li><b>Learn the melodic way of speaking</b>- The way people speak in other languages is quite melodic. You can improve your accent by essentially singing the lines.</li>
</ol>
Let's get to it.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-67067687150162140582014-04-21T18:05:00.002-07:002014-04-21T18:08:23.207-07:00The Fundamental Strategy taught by the game of Nim: The Victory Node<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/0wiGNRi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/0wiGNRi.png" height="320" width="213" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Matches are commonly used to play Nim. </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Nim is an old strategy game popularized in 16th century Europe, and purportedly played in China. The game is simple, and can be played with simple objects, often using stones or matches. The game is played by laying out lines of objects and taking turns taking objects away. You take objects away by choosing a line, and then taking as many objects from that line as you want. The goal is to force the opponent to take the last object. Its best explained through an example:<br />
<i><br /></i>
<br />
<h4>
<i>For example.</i></h4>
<br />
The game begins by laying out stones in two lines:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">****</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">***</span></div>
<ol>
<li>The first player chooses one of the lines (top or bottom), and can take AS MANY stones as he wants from it. (in this case, he can take anywhere from 1-4 stones). Let's say he takes 2 stones.<br /><br />Here's how the board looks like this:<br /><div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">**<br />***</span></div>
</li>
<li>Next, the second player does the same. He selects a line, and takes as many stones as he wants. Let's say he chooses line 2, and takes 1 stone.<br /><br />The board now looks like this:<br /><div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">**<br />**</span></div>
</li>
<li> It returns to the first player, who takes 1 stone<br /><br />Board:<br /><div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">*<br />**</span></div>
</li>
<li>The second player takes BOTH stones from the bottom<br /><br />Board:<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">*</span></div>
</li>
<li>The first player is forced to take the last stone, and loses. </li>
</ol>
<h2>
The Fundamental Strategy </h2>
At its core, the game of Nim is a mathematical one, and guarantees victory if you don't make mistakes and have the right board positioning.<br />
<br />
It is not a competitive back-and-forth game at all. Allow me to demonstrate:<br />
Say we have a board position like this:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">*<br />**</span></div>
We might recognize this as the scenario in our example earlier. The ratio of beads is 1:2. And this board position basically <b>guarantees</b> victory for the person whose turn it is. Supposing that the person plays it our right.<br />
<br />
By taking both stones on the bottom line, it forces the opponent to take the final bead. Of course, you can still lose if you take only 1 stone, or the top line stone, but that would be a mistake.<br />
<br />
Let's expand this, and look at a "losing situation"<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">**<br />**</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Lets call this the 2:2 board position. If you have this scenario, it is near impossible to win if your opponent knows what he is doing. Lets look at your options (note that both lines are the same, so it doesn't really matter which line you choose)</div>
<ol>
<li>Taking 1 bead makes it so that you give the opponent the 1:2 ratio board position discussed above. </li>
<li>Taking 2 beads allows your opponent to take 1 bead, and forces you to lose.</li>
</ol>
Let's go one more step forward and see if we recognize a pattern:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"> ***<br />**</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Lets call this the 3:2 board position. This is also a board position where you are guranteed to win if you play it out right. Why? Because it builds off what have established with the 2:2, and 1:2 board set up. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
By taking away 1 stone, you force your opponent into a 2:2 board position, which is a guaranteed lose if you play it right.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
And so on....4:4 is a loss, 5:4 is a win, 5:5 is a loss, etc.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There are also games of Nim with multiple lines, but I don't want to get too far into those ideas as of yet.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
What does this Mean?</h2>
I didn't write this article to talk about the method of winning Nim, there are mathematical equations and methods which better describe that. I wrote it out to highlight a fundamental goal behind strategy and strategic interaction: The point where all that matters is your own execution of the strategy.<br />
<br />
I call these points "Victory Nodes". As once you are in that position, the only thing that matters is not making mistakes- your opponents actions don't matter so long as you respond appropriately. The victory nodes are different from straight out winning because you can still make a mistake, but are important to note because they are often able to forecast victory long before it actually occurs.<br />
<br />
A good strategist makes note of these potential Victory Nodes and tries to drive the position of the game towards it, and then sweeps up victory in one fell swoop.<br />
<br />
In essence, a victory node is a point in which your success depends solely on yourself, and is not dependent on your opponent making a non-optimal move or a mistake.<br />
<br />
In other words, to use a victory node:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
You win by putting yourself in a position where your opponent's actions won't produce victory if you respond correctly. All that matters is your own execution of the strategy.</blockquote>
<br />
Of course, with everything, it is often easier said than done.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-63307913818545164332014-04-13T18:12:00.000-07:002014-04-13T18:16:09.324-07:00Debunking Sherlock Holmes Myths: "Deductive Reasoning"<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/SOj634D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/SOj634D.jpg" height="240" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<u>"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, <i>however improbable</i>, must be the truth</u>?"</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Sherlock Holmes, <i>The Sign of the Four</i>, ch. 6 (1890)</div>
</blockquote>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As with many Holmesian fanatics, the first time we heard the term "<b>deduce</b>" was while reading a Sherlock Holmes story. Prior to that, I had never heard the word before; so I quickly learned to associate the term "deduce" with Sherlock Holmes, as if it was something unique and central to him and his method.<br />
<br />
It was many years later that I discovered that in fact there was an entire segment of Formal Logic devoted to studying "Deductive Reasoning". Being the Holmesian fanatic I was, (and being lured in by the image of a Holmes silhouette in the description) I embarked on a quest to master the skills of Deduction.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/SsbAIB6.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/SsbAIB6.gif" height="320" width="259" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This image was placed in the description of "Deductive Reasoning".</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
However, to my dismay I realized something that shattered my reality; The "deduction" that I had always associated with Holmes wasn't utilized by the consulting detective at all! <br />
<br />
Allow me to demonstrate what I mean.<br />
<br />
<h3>
<b>Logic and Deductive Reasoning</b></h3>
Lets start by giving you a basic rundown of formal logic.<br />
<br />
In logic, <u>Deductive Reasoning</u> is known as the "top-down" approach (as opposed to Inductive, which is a bottom- up approach). You basically start from general premises or categories, and you work your way down to a specific conclusion. <br />
<br />
For instance, the most famous example is the "<i>Socrates is a man</i>" syllogism. It goes like this:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: center;">
(P)All men are mortal</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
(P)Socrates is a man</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
-------------</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
(C)Socrates is mortal</div>
</blockquote>
You can think of it like this.We have a group of people called "men" and we know a variety of qualities that all people within that group share: they are mortal, they have a Y chromosome, etc. If we are told that Socrates is a person within that group, then we know that he shares the traits of the group- i.e. that he's mortal and has a Y chromosome.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/04/5-minute-logic-tutorial-deductive.html">(This method is different from Inductive Reasoning) </a><br />
<br />
This method reasoning to a conclusion is actually very different from Holmesian Deduction<br />
<br />
<h3>
<b>Holmesian Deduction</b></h3>
<br />
<u>Holmesian Deduction</u> is a bit different, and really draws from the word "deduce", which implies to subtract. In a way, Holmesian Deduction is all about shaving off the excess until you're left with the essential pieces.<br />
<br />
The way that Holmes utilizes his deduction is quite simple: He prepares a number of possibilities in his head, and then tests them. The possibilities which are impossible or don't fit, are eliminated. The process continues until he is left with a single possibility that, no matter how improbable, must be the case.<br />
<br />
Essentially, this is how Holmes solves his cases: He collects the facts from various sources, such as visiting the scene or talking to witnesses, and creates a list of possible solutions- and then he tests them one at a time using logic, visual simulation, or experiments. It is in fact, the scientific method as applied to crime solving. <br />
<br />
<h3>
Holmes' True Method</h3>
So what method does Holmes ACTUALLY use? Is there are formal logic version of his method. Well, essentially there are two major forms of formal reasoning in "Induction" and "Deduction". But there are somewhat less well known forms of logic as well. Such as Abduction.<br />
<br />
<b>Abductive Reasoning</b> is a form of reasoning that goes from Observation to Hypothesis. It observes a situation, say a crime scene, and brings up several hypothesis that are sufficient for causing the crime. For instance, lets say we have this scenario:<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: small;">Observation: </span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<ul>
<li>There was a cookie place on the table in front of three sugar-loving children. Red, Blue, and Green. The cookie must be eaten if touched. </li>
<li>The cookie is now gone.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</blockquote>
<b>Hypothesis: </b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<ul>
<li>You can abduce (create hypothesis) that: </li>
<ul>
<li>"Red may have eaten the cookie"</li>
<li>"Blue may have eaten the cookie" </li>
<li>"Green may have eaten the cookie"</li>
</ul>
</ul>
</div>
</blockquote>
To the many Holmesians out there, this might not look like the method of "deduction" that you have come to be aware of; It doesn't seem to have the "subtracting" of possibilities that I put down as core to Holmesian deduction. However, lets revisit it upon discovering some new information. <br />
<br />
We return to the scene and find out some new information:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: center;">
Red was asleep at the time of the cookie eating. </blockquote>
In essence, we have added another point to our observations, and as such, the possible hypotheses have changed as well. <br />
<br />
Here are the new hypothesies:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b><i>Observation</i></b>: The cookie is missing. It could only have been eaten by one of the three children. Red was asleep at the time the cookie was eaten.<br /><br />
<b><i>Hypotheses</i></b>: "Blue may have eaten the cookie", "Green may have eaten the cookie".</blockquote>
As you can see, when we reevaluate the abduction with new information, we are essentially eliminating possibilities, just like how Holmes eliminates possibilities upon receiving new information. In essence "eliminating the impossible until only left with only one possibility".<br />
<h3>
Conclusion</h3>
Holmes' method doesn't resemble deductive reasoning at all. Instead, it's much more similar to a form of reasoning known as "Abductive Reasoning".<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/UjqjNw4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/UjqjNw4.jpg" height="292" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-43317137599974318502014-04-09T16:48:00.005-07:002014-04-09T16:49:11.368-07:005 minute Logic Tutorial: Deductive Reasoning and Inductive ReasoningAlright, here's a 5 minute Logic tutorial on Deductive Reasoning and Inductive Reasoning. In formal Logic, these are the two main methods of reasoning.<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Deduction- Top-down approach</li>
<li>Induction- Bottom-up approach</li>
</ol>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/KuOMicw.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/KuOMicw.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The "top" refers to a group or category<br />
The "bottom" refers to an individual or particular instance</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
You should be able to pick it up as you read on.<br />
<h3>
Deductive Reasoning </h3>
In logic, <u>Deductive Reasoning</u> is known as the "top-down"
approach. You go from general qualities of a group to say things about specific instances of that group.<br />
<br />
For instance, the most famous example is the "<i>Socrates is a man</i>" syllogism. It goes like this:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: center;">
(P)All men are mortal</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
(P)Socrates is a man</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
-------------</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
(C)Socrates is mortal</div>
</blockquote>
You
can think of it like this. We have a group of people called "men" and we
know a variety of qualities that all people within that group must share:
they are mortal, they have a Y chromosome, etc. If we are told that
Socrates is a person within that group, then we know that he must share the
traits of the group- i.e. that he's mortal and has a Y chromosome.<br />
<br />
This is different from Sherlock Holmes' Deduction (Abduction). <br />
<h3>
Inductive Reasoning</h3>
Inductive Reasoning is known as the "bottom-up" approach. It goes from a specific instance (or individual) to reaching grand conclusions about the group they belong to.<br />
<br />
For instance, lets say we have Johan, who is a man from country XYZ. If Johan is a smoker and we say that all people from country XYZ are smokers, then we are using induction. Induction.<br />
<br />
As you can see, very common use of this is in Stereotyping, where we take qualities from specific instances (in this case, Johan's smoking) , and assume that it applies to all the people of the group the person belongs to (assume that everyone from country XYZ are smokers).<br />
<br />
Induction tends to be the riskier and more dangerous form of reasoning. <br />
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-56803927380386969222014-04-06T20:43:00.000-07:002014-04-06T20:43:07.804-07:0018 Cryptograms of Western University (Part 3/Final)Recently, it appears that the code has essentially been "cracked". I am essentially just making this post in order to conclude what happened.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2014/04/05/i_cracked_the_code_at_the_western_university_library.html">The article can be found here</a><br />
<br />
According to the article, it wasn't actually a "code" at all, but rather a sort of social art experiment. While 121 letters were hidden a few years ago, it seems they have only had widespread attention at this point. <br />
<br />
The result may not be especially exciting for the code-breaker, or armchair detective, but I suppose it has its own merits. After all, our analysis had suggested that the text wasn't very carefully formatted, suggesting that the attempt wasn't to deliver the entire message. Additionally, there was the oddity of giving several of the same letter (content wise) with nigh negligible differences. Essentially it suggested the idea that there wasn't much to find in the letter content.<br />
<br />
However, I was hoping that they were trying to make a point with the objects and the pictures they chose. <br />
<br />
I hope that I hear from the creator of this at some point. I'm not especially interested in tracking them down, but I would be interested in hearing their reasoning for choosing to do the things they did.<br />
<br />
Until then, Happy Sleuthing.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-87562585849506618512014-04-02T01:54:00.001-07:002014-04-02T01:54:11.305-07:00The Interesting Effects of Suey Park and PETA- The Benefits of Appearing Mad<b>Craziness works.</b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/WsqdVWN.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/WsqdVWN.png" height="193" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">Her twitter feed. 36K in tweets with 21k in followers.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
For those of you who are aware of US pop news, you may have heard about the twitter debacle with #CancelColbert and the twitter sensation Suey Park. Suey Park created a campaign to cancel "The Colbert Show" after a twitter account called "The Colbert Report" posted something she considered to be horribly offensive and racist. Her tweet has exploded, and now the entire internet seems to be aware of her and have come to the consensus that she is crazy.<br />
<br />
And yet, I believe her presence is actually quite positive for supporting the cause of rights for people of color (or I guess Asian Americans, It's hard to pinpoint what she stands for).<br />
<br />
I'm not here to debate whether she is right or not. I'm not even here to analyze her goals and intentions. Instead, i'm here to talk about the effect she has as a <b>highly vocal</b> and <b>highly visible</b> figure. One could actually consider her to be a lot like PETA.<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
As you'll soon see, both Suey Park and PETA have a sort of "martyr" effect for the causes they support. They take the negative rapport and stir up a great deal of attention for their cause. Since their causes tend to be something that people are either neutral about or agree with, it reaps all the benefits of the attention without also being tied to the negative press.</blockquote>
<br />
Let's talk a little about these two groups.<br />
<h3>
PETA and "All publicity is good publicity"</h3>
PETA (standing for People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals), for those who aren't aware, is an animal rights activist group. They are well known for their extremely controversial rallies and demonstrations. They are almost always found in the news and the public consciousness given how outlandish their actions and demands are. They are also known to be especially confrontational.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/Peta_Comic_Book.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/Peta_Comic_Book.gif" height="320" width="208" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">PETA is very single minded in the way<br />it tries to advertise its cause</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
PETA is known for using shocking imagery, such as violent and bloody images directed toward children. They often utilize images and methods that stir an emotional response rather than arguments.<br />
<br />
When the Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer, they ran an ad of him in a "got milk?" style advertisement, substituting the catch-phrase with "got prostate cancer?" in order to try and associate prostate cancer with milk.<br />
<br />
They don't really pull their punches, and are very opportunistic. In the case of some fishermen being bitten by sharks, they ran an ad that said "payback is a bitch, go vegan" to the outrage of the victim's families.<br />
<br />
Given all this, its hardly a surprise that PETA has a reputation for being crazy.<br />
<br />
The<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_for_the_Ethical_Treatment_of_Animals"> wiki page</a> has more.<br />
<br />
As far as their cause goes. I believe that the idea of "animal rights" is generally not scoffed at, nor really solely associated with PETA. In fact, I would say that people consider PETA to be the "insane animal rights activists group", with the knowledge that there are several less crazy ones. The fact that their cause and PETA itself can be separated is quite important.<br />
<h3>
Suey Park's Craziness</h3>
Again, i'm not here to talk about Suey Park as a person. There have been an absurd number of articles judging her arguments and character already, such as <a href="http://joslynstevens.com/?p=306&preview=true">this one</a>. Instead i'll just mention some of the effects of her actions.<br />
<br />
The 23 year-old has over 21,000 twitter followers with her "Ching Chong Ding Dong Foundation for the sensitivity for Orientals". So every one of her tweets has a large audience. When she posted the #cancelcolbert hashtag as a call to arms, the whole phenomena took off; it exploded partly because of her large following, partly because it was related to Colbert(who was well known) , and partly because it seemed like a CRAZY thing to say.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/U6MKgaq.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/U6MKgaq.png" height="121" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Extreme views draw attention. If this just said "Everyone can be racist", it wouldn't<br />draw nearly as much attention.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It's pretty important to acknowledge the craziness of what she said, as it really did lead to the post exploding. The internet is a large place with enormous amounts of information floating around. If your comments or opinions are normal or standard, they won't stand out. The opinions that everyone notices are the ones that are different, and often extreme. Suey Park's opinion was very extreme, and that's why it ended up becoming a phenomena.<br />
<br />
Her subsequent comments and rather stormy appearance on a Huffington Post interview has caused the internet to go into a frenzy. The consensus of many bloggers and commenters on Reddit is that she is crazy.<br />
<br />
You'd think this would set back the cause she fights for. On the contrary, it brings attention to the cause, and attention that is often neutral. Being "against racism" is something people in the US are all supportive of, and since Suey Park doesn't solely embody that cause, it will gain a lot of neutral or good attention. I find it doubtful that anyone will say "I'm for the mistreatment of people of color because I hate Suey Park".<br />
<h2>
What are the Effects?</h2>
The fact of the matter is that PETA and Suey Park bring a lot of attention to their causes. They are both similar in that they have gained attention by utilizing confrontational and "crazy" means. However, the attention is positive for the causes they stand behind since the causes tend to be things that people are either neutral or supportive of.<br />
<br />
<b>It looks a little like this:</b><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Act Crazy</b></li>
<li><b>Craziness gets attention</b></li>
<li><b>Attention goes to speaker</b></li>
<li><b>Attention drips down into cause (to a lesser degree)</b></li>
<li><b>Negative association with speaker develops</b></li>
<li><b>No negative association with cause because cause is non-controversial</b></li>
</ol>
<div>
<b>Result: </b></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Negative association with speaker</b></li>
<li><b>Lots of attention for Speaker</b></li>
<li><b>Lots of attention for Cause</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Cause gains from Crazy speaker</b></div>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<h2>
Requirments</h2>
<br />
But there are very specific requirements that must be in place before this can work<br />
<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>It works because Suey Park and PETA are not only only proponents of their cause, they just tend to be the most famous and the most visible due to their outlandish actions and words. So they can be called the crazy ones out of a group.</li>
<li>It works because their causes are not especially controversial. People are not especially against "animal rights" nor really against "anti-racism". There's not really a debate happening about whether or not racism is good, its accepted that it is a negative thing at this point.</li>
</ol>
<div>
Essentially, people are not saying "I will now support Racism because I think Suey Park is crazy". They are more likely to say something along the lines of "I think Suey Park is crazy, and I feel sorry for the people who are actually trying to fight racism because she makes them look bad".</div>
<br />
<br />
It works because the attention the crazy person gets will bleed onto their cause, while the notoriety will really only affect the speaker. Remember that those two requirements must be in play though, being crazy for attention isn't always a good thing- bad reputations can easily destroy businesses and careers.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-59211718303438364552014-03-29T00:39:00.001-07:002014-04-16T03:45:23.533-07:00The 18 Cryptograms of Western University (Part 2)I found some time to think about the cryptograms since <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-18-cryptograms-of-western.html">my last post</a>. Apparently, there has been another found since then, putting the number to 19. Granted, I don't want to have to constantly rename it, so i'll keep it at 18 cryptograms for now.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/SApX96Y.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/SApX96Y.jpg" height="320" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The purported 19th page</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
<br />The key fact I decided to consider was the fact that there are really only 4 letters- The Leaf letter, The Gem letter, the Feather Glass, and the Feather Table.The Importance of the picture over the content</h3>
<br />
To prove my point:<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/G3hO6Wf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/G3hO6Wf.png" height="165" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Here are the endings of two Gem pages. Notice how the symbols<br />
are exactly the same. The only difference is that there are significantly<br />
fewer symbols on the page on the right. The letters I listed above are<br />
the ones with the MOST symbols and otherwise identical content.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Every other letter is just a variation of those letters with less content. Which makes me wonder why they exist in the first place. Why would you release letters without the full content? If you were writing a message to someone and sent them multiple, why would you send some that didn't have the full message?<br />
<br />
There seems to be two plausible explanations for that:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>The missing symbols are supposed to highlight something</li>
<li>The final symbols are not as important as the picture choice</li>
</ol>
<h3>
Why Explanation 1 is probably wrong</h3>
<div>
Now, for the first explanation, this would mean that there was intentional effort spent trying to make sure that certain symbols vanished from the back. This means, it was not simply because they were formatted out. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's how I tested it. I went on google and searched for the name of the objects such as "Box", "Table", and "Glass". Most of the pictures that showed up were essentially identical to the ones that were seen on many of the letters.</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/k24olwR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/k24olwR.png" height="156" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 9th image on the first page is quite familiar.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/mrhWTVQ.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/mrhWTVQ.png" height="155" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The very first image appears to be the same one we find on our letters</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
From there, I decided to copy the image and scale it without changing the dimensions of it (the ratio between width and height stayed the same). And I proceeded to superimpose it onto our letters with a bit less opacity.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/tftZB6n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/tftZB6n.jpg" height="200" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I matched the sizes of the boxes together. The whiter segment<br />
is the boundaries of the original image</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/5gYg9YA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/5gYg9YA.jpg" height="200" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I superimposed the table onto the table. The sizes match and the<br />
super-white parts determine the original boundaries of the image</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
So what does this mean?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Well as you can see, the Box image has lines of 6 symbols long beside it. While the Table image has lines of 7 symbols next to it. Additionally, the start between the symbols and the boundaries are the same in both images. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Supposing google is where they got the images, it would mean that<u> the author did not change the dimensions after acquiring the image</u>. They may have scaled it, but they kept the dimensions the same.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Conclusion</h4>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Given that all the images with feathers had 7 full lines. It appears that the author scaled the images so that the height would allow for 7 full lines. However, the author did not care to deal with the width of the images.</blockquote>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That might not sound like much of a big deal, but that could be deceptive.<u> </u>It suggests that the author did not try to tweak the image's boundaries to make it so that an exact number of symbols was deleted. So for the author, <u>the last few symbols didn't really matter. </u></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Instead there were two things that could have mattered more:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li><b>The first 7 lines for the feathers staying intact (Added note: this is not the case for gems, nor leaves: see below)</b></li>
<li><b>Having an image there, and keeping its width dimensions (ratio wise)</b></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I should also make a note of something. Compare these two images</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/kzhlXoF.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/kzhlXoF.png" height="239" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Look at the bottom of the glass. Notice how the one on the right<br />
is slightly rounder than the one of the left? Also notice how it is<br />
also more skinny and widens toward the lip?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
What you'll notice is that the two images aren't the same. Well, the second image is one of the first hits you find on google. It's actually NOT where the author got his image. Unfortunately I haven't been able to locate where the author found his image as of yet.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br />
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/AH38wdN.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/AH38wdN.png" height="155" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The third image on google is NOT the image used by the author</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
The Interesting Case of Gems</h4>
<div>
I performed the same process of superimposing the pictures I found on google over the images on the letters to see if the boundaries had changed. While it became quite clear that the author had tried to scale the pictures in the feather image so that they were the same height (allowing for 7 full lines), it was a bit different for gems.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/3OSmySX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/3OSmySX.jpg" height="200" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Box superimposition was as expected</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/Cp4qjeh.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/Cp4qjeh.jpg" height="200" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">However, this one was different</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
The Gem box told a different story. Given the boundaries of the picture, it is very plausible that the document decided that it couldn't finish the 7th line. However, given that, the author did not attempt to remedy it (despite being so close). Which suggests that the 7 line may not have mattered so much for the author at all.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I couldn't find the images for leaves to test yet.</div>
<h3>
What does Explanation 2 suggest?</h3>
<div>
We've essentially established that the author didn't really care to bother keeping the last few symbols in the letter. Given that, what can we learn from that?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If the symbols were simply pushed out by the pictures, then it suggests that having the picture with its original height to width ratio is more important than having the full content of the symbols.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This suggests that the complete content of the letter (symbol-wise) is not actually the most important part of letter(after all, the author has no qualms or cares about getting rid of the last few symbols), and that perhaps the picture is meant to convey much more. </blockquote>
<div>
However, it should be noted that all the colored symbols still exist. So perhaps they have some significance, and perhaps there is still something to be learned from the text before the final colored symbol.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
I'll ponder it a bit more.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-29780347292841526432014-03-26T18:53:00.003-07:002014-03-29T00:44:55.314-07:00The 18 Cryptograms of Western University (Part 1)There has been an interesting mystery brewing in Western University of London, Ontario. 18 pages filled with strange symbols have been found slipped in the middle of various textbooks in the political science and economics department library. Given a puzzle like this, I couldn't find it in myself to turn it down.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/DMIrvxl.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/DMIrvxl.jpg" height="320" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Page 14 of 18</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
A First Look</h3>
I suggest taking a look at the letters if you are interested in reading further.<br />
<br />
<b>You can find the <a href="http://imgur.com/gallery/p4kYq">album of the letters here.</a></b><br />
<br />
Here are a few facts that are immediately noted:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>The letters appeared to all be found in the poli-sci and economics library</li>
<li>Each letter is placed in an envelope and accompanied by an object</li>
<li>Each letter has an image on the bottom of the page</li>
<li>There is a web address leading to a url: "000xyz.blog.ca"- seems to be a blank page</li>
</ul>
<h3>
A Deeper Look (Framing the Problem)</h3>
<div>
Here are a few facts that are realized after looking a little deeper</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>There are only 3 objects: Feather, Leaf, and Gem</li>
<li>There are only 6 pictures: Pillow, Vase, Glass, Frame, Box, and Table</li>
<li>Someone has pointed out that there are 40+ symbols, which suggests that it might not translate directly into English (with an alphabet of 26 with a numeric bonus of 10 symbols)</li>
</ul>
<div>
Given that I began to wonder if the objects and pictures denoted anything. So I began to compare the pages with the same object to one another. I quickly found that many of the pages were actually quite similar, and in fact, many of them were identical.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For instance, Pages 3 and 4 both had <b>Feathers</b> for their objects, with different pictures at the bottom:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Page 3 had an Orange <b>Feather</b>, and a <b>Glass</b> picture</li>
<li>Page 4 had a Green <b>Feather</b>, and a <b>Table</b> picture. </li>
</ul>
I found that the two pages had the exact same content except for the last few symbols. I decided to perform the same task with the same object and the same picture:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Page 4 had an Orange <b>Feather</b>, and a <b>Glass</b> picture</li>
<li>Page 8 had a Pink <b>Feather</b>, and a <b>Glass</b> picture</li>
</ul>
<div>
To my pleasant surprise, the two pages appeared to be completely identical in content. The formatting was entirely the same. I felt like I was onto something, and tested it with a few others.</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Page 11 has the same object and picture as 4 and 8, and is<i> identical</i> to them</li>
<li>Page 12 has the same object and picture as 3 and 7, and is <i>identical</i> to them</li>
<li>Page 16 has the same object and picture as 3, 7, and 12, and is <i>identical</i> to them</li>
</ul>
<div>
This leads me to the hypothesis:</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The object identifies the content of the letter, while the picture within it determines a version of the letter with slight formatting differences. This is given the fact that all letters with the same object and picture were identical.</blockquote>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I wondered if there was a connection between just the pictures. So I double checked it by looking at letters with the different objects, but the same picture:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Page 13 has a <b>Gem</b> and a <b>Box</b></li>
<li>Page 17 has a <b>Feather</b> and a <b>Box</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
The two letters were entirely different. Which suggested that there was no immediately obvious connection between the letters with the same letter and different objects. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Granted this, I decided to look at the list of letters with similar content (letters with the same objects) and looked at how they compared:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Gems</b></li>
<ul>
<li>Glass pictures have 2 more symbols than Vase pictures and Frame pictures</li>
<li>Box pictures have 6 fewer symbols than Vase pictures</li>
<li>Table pictures have the same number as Glass pictures</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Feathers</b></li>
<ul>
<li>Glass pictures have 2 more symbols than Table pictures</li>
<li>Table and Glass pictures have different content (different endings after the last feather symbol)</li>
<li>Box pictures have 5 fewer symbols than Glass pictures</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Leaves</b></li>
<ul>
<li>Pillow pictures and Vase pictures are the same content wise, but have different formatting</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
This means the number of symbols :</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Gems</b></li>
<ul>
<li>Glass/Table> Vase/Frame>Box</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Feathers</b></li>
<ul>
<li>Glass>Table>Box</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Leaf</b></li>
<ul>
<li>Pillow=Vase</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
Given this, if we want to see the <b>full</b> content of the letters, we simply need to look at these (you don't have to look at ALL of them from the list):</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Leaf Pillow or Vase- Pages 1, or 18</li>
<li>Gem Glass or Table- Pages 6 or 14</li>
<li>Feather Glass: Pages 3, 7, 12, or 16</li>
<li>Feather Table: Pages 4, 8, or 11</li>
</ul>
<h3>
So Far</h3>
</div>
<div>
We have yet to try and apply any cryptography to it, but have noted a few things of interest such as the categorization system, and a few other qualities. It also brings out many questions that very well may bring us towards understanding what the writer (or writers as it may be) were attempting.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'm a firm believer that solving a problem consists of finding the right questions to ask. So at this point in time, we can begin to take a look at some of the questions that have arisen from this scenario. </div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Why so many of the same letters and so few of others? </li>
<li>Why make so many variations of each letter (content wise), when they essentially share the same content?</li>
<li>Why make variations of each letter at all?</li>
<li>Is there extra meaning behind the objects and the pictures?</li>
<li>Is there meaning behind the location and place they were found?</li>
<li>Could any of them been copycats and fakes?</li>
<li>Are the colored symbols supposed to mean?</li>
</ul>
<div>
These questions may not be the typical cryptography approach, but may shed some light on the mystery as a whole. After all, in order to break a code, you have to have the information and know the secret. Given that, some of these questions may enlighten us on what it is we may need to know.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'm going to brew on it a bit more before writing a second part<br />
<b>EDIT: <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-18-crypograms-of-western-university.html">Part 2 can be found here</a></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If you want another source, I suggest <a href="http://www.swontario.ca/">going here</a>. Its the blog of the professor who has first hand access to the knowlege</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-29758000707067549412014-03-23T01:09:00.002-07:002014-03-23T01:12:54.677-07:00Malaysia 370- Follow up analysis of possibilities<div>
</div>
My <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-silver-blaze-of-malasyia-airlines.html">previous article</a> was an analysis of the Malaysia 370 situation. It wasn't meant to provide new information, but rather highlight the likelihood of certain scenarios and the key questions that should be answered. However, analysis isn't the full responsibility of a strategist- there comes a time where he must also decide on a plan of action.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://localtvwiti.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-flight-370.jpg?w=400" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://localtvwiti.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-flight-370.jpg?w=400" height="225" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Possible routes of the Plane</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
In this article, I ponder the methods I would employ in order to find out what happened to the aircraft/recover it and the people.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This will be written from the current situation and point of view.</div>
<h4>
Current Situation</h4>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/cf/Chinese_satellite_image_of_possible_debris_of_MH370.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/cf/Chinese_satellite_image_of_possible_debris_of_MH370.jpg" height="320" width="314" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Chinese satellite photo of "possible debris"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
Currently the International community is essentially acting upon the assumption that the plane had crashed within an hour of the last ping. Thus, they are engaging in attempts to find the wreckage. Satellites used by China and Australia have caught sight of several large pieces of wreckage. There are constant flights back and forth, scanning the depths for evidence of a crashed plane.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I will admit, this does seem like the most likely scenario given what I know. Given the difficulty of the whole scenario, it seems difficult to deny it. The satellite pings from the plane were an indicator that the plane was still "aloft". So the lack of an eighth ping suggests that the plane is no longer in the air. Officials assumed that this meant that it had crashed. Which, I admit, is probably the most likely scenario.</div>
<h4>
Alternative</h4>
<div>
But what if it hadn't? Is it possible for the satellite pings to stop happening and for the plane to either stay afloat or not have crashed?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Let's take a look at what this would entail (assuming everything said up till now was accurate).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Something had to have stopped the <u>satellite pings</u>, this could include <u>signal jamming</u>, a <u>ping system failing</u>, a <u>failure to connect to the satellite</u>, and the <u>plane no longer being afloat</u> (but not crashed).</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Signal Jamming</b>- This would require either powerful technology, or certain conditions.</li>
<ul>
<li>I would do research in how the ping system works, and what could block it. I would then look at the difficulty and expense in creating a machine that would block those signals. Given that the ping system went on for so long, it would mean that the pilot didn't have the signal jammer or forgot to turn it on until then.</li>
<li>It would also be telling of who could have done such a task. If it the plane was trying to fly into a signal-jammer zone, then it means there are signs of cooperation. In order to build a signal jammer of that range and size might also require suitable wealth. Perhaps it would suggest the type of person or group we are looking for.</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Ping System Failing</b>- plausible. Though highly unlikely. The Boeing 777 is typically considered one of the safest and most well-made planes. For the Rolls-Royce designed engine to just fail like that is unlikely, but possible.</li>
<ul>
<li>This would basically consist of researching the ping system inside the engine and looking at the possibility of a failure in normal conditions.</li>
</ul>
<li><b>A Failure to Connect to the Satellite</b>- Similar to signal jamming, this could have been caused by things like weather, going out of the satellite's range. From what I understand, the satellite's range was quite large, which leaves weather. I am sadly unfamiliar with how well the pinging system sits with weather.</li>
<ul>
<li>Look at the current weather conditions, the satellite range, and possible satellite and ping system blockers.</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Plane no longer being afloat (but not crashed)</b>- This basically means the plane landed somewhere. If this happened, it would imply that there were helpers as well as a large strip for the plane to land (make that, an enormous strip). This basically means that it would have had to make contact with a tower that allowed space for landing a Boeing 777.</li>
<ul>
<li>Well, I would look on the land to see possible places in which a plane of that size could land. Additionally, there would be a need in order to hide the plane, as well as guide it to a landing without it crashing. If you look on the map, you might notice some possible spots and locations- I would seek those out. The question here is: what would it take to land a Boeing 777.</li>
<li>Additionally there's the issue of the people. How do you keep them quiet? Do you round them up and hide them away? Or do you keep them quiet through more violent means? Perhaps you even dump them out mid flight, but that may be too risky.</li>
<li>Of course you might say "it could have landed on the water". Well... if it did, it would likely sink. So the search method would be the same as if I had assumed it had crashed. But if you assume that it landed on water on some sort of landing platform, well you'd be assuming a VERY large landing platform. I imagine it wouldn't be too easy to move that around unless it was pieced together in parts.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
Basically in short, I feel as though those possibilities are not quite as likely. But they are possible. But if the plane stayed afloat and the ping system died, what then? The plane failed to show up on any other radars, so it would have literally vanished into thin air. We're talking about a Donnie Darko plane vanishing here.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'll be watching the news closely.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-34441418145670005172014-03-22T21:51:00.003-07:002014-03-23T01:10:46.726-07:00The Silver Blaze of Malasyia Airlines Flight 370<i>Edit: For clarity, this post is meant simply to provide a perspective and frame of view on the situation. I intended to point out critical points, and highlight likely possibilities. This isn't really meant to provide "new information", as I am not close enough to the actual scene to be able to provide that information. A follow up article about plans for action can be found <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/malaysia-370-follow-up-analysis-of.html">here</a>. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
I've made a mistake recently akin to Sherlock Holmes' mistake in Silver Blaze. I assumed that given the fame and well known circumstance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, that it couldn't stay missing for long. But it has been 15 days since, and the location of the plane is still missing.<br />
<br />
However, given that I do not have the means to be scouting the possible scenes of the crime, all I can do is sit and logically parse the scene with a strategic mind.<br />
<h3>
The facts:</h3>
<div>
Here are some facts collected from a variety of sources. You could always check the Wikipedia page <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370">here</a>, if you want to read them in compiled format.</div>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Flight 370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport heading to Beijing Capital Airport on March 8th at 00:41 local time (MYT)</li>
<li>There were 12 crew members, and 227 passengers- the majority of which were Chinese.</li>
<li>The plane was a Boeing 777-200ER, registration 9M-MRO</li>
<li>At 41 minutes into the flight (1:22 MYT), the transponder and ADB-S turn off</li>
<li>At 49 minutes, another aircraft unsuccessfully tries to contact the plane (mumbling)</li>
<li>At 1hour and 30 minutes into the flight, the plane begins to make automated ACARS(Aircraft Communications and Reporting System) contact with satellite Inmarset 3F1. Its sort of like a fax machine.</li>
<li>At 1hour and 43 minutes (2:15 MYT), there was radar contact of the plane by the Malaysian Military. The plane is now 200 miles NW of Penang</li>
<li>Misses flight scheduled arrival time at (6:30 MYT)</li>
<li>At 7hours and 30 minutes into the flight, there is one last signal between the plane and the satellite</li>
</ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370_insert.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370_insert.png" height="347" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The projected route of the plane. As you can see, it strayed from the direct<br />
course to Beijing and instead headed west.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
Analysis</h3>
<div>
Unfortunately, I cannot be on the scene or be aware of all the information going on. All I can really do is bring some possibilities to light given the actions and what has been said.</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li><b>Key factors- </b>The key questions that should help illuminate the mystery</li>
<li><b>The first issue is</b>- Accident or Intentional?</li>
<li><b>The second issue is</b>- If it was intentional, what was the goal?</li>
<li><b>The third issue is</b>- Who did it?</li>
<li><b>The fourth issue is</b>- Where is the plane now? What about the people?</li>
</ol>
</div>
<h4>
Key Factors</h4>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>The Passengers</b>- The passengers might very well have a desire to get home, so if they had the options to contact the outside world they probably would. The fact that we have not is both suggestive and worrisome.</li>
<li><b>The Route of the plane</b>- The plane began to divert course at about 41 minutes in. The plane then starts heading west. This suggests that its trying to get somewhere, or away from something. If all was desired was a crashed plane, then there's no point in flying outwards.</li>
<li><b>The Tracking of the Plane</b>- If a large Boeing 777 vanishes, you can bet that people will be looking for it. The pressure 239 missing people will probably make a plane visible if it passed by. Then again, if it didn't look like it and didn't give the signal of its registration, then perhaps it could be hiding in plane view (Silver Blaze reference), but then that also leaves the issue of shutting up 277 passengers. If it had flown into some well known location, we would likely hear about it.</li>
<li><b>The Vanishing signal</b>- The plane was giving "handshakes" to a satellite telling its location every hour. You have to wonder why it stopped giving signals when it did- Was it because of time, location, or realization that the signals were being sent (unlikely, the engine is what sends the pings apparently)?</li>
<li><b>Access to Control the Plane</b>- In order to "hijack a plane" you have to take control of it. How would they do that for this kind of plane- especially without any reaction from the people on the plane? Could one person do it alone? Was it done from inside or outside? Was it even hijacked at all?</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h4>
Accident or Intentional</h4>
<div>
By all the data, it seems there was some very deliberate actions occurring with the control the plane. According to the accounts of US radar experts, the path of the plane after the transponder and ADB-S turned off suggested that it was still under the control of a trained pilot. Of course, it could be possible that the pilot's navigation system had malfunctioned in a grand way, and he thought he was headed the right way.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/USS_Kidd_conducting_search_off_Andaman_sea_for_flight_MH370.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/USS_Kidd_conducting_search_off_Andaman_sea_for_flight_MH370.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The checking of the ocean suggests that experts believe<br />
the plane to have crashed.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
However, there's also the coincidence that the transponder and ADB-S went offline. The ADB-S is essentially the GPS of the plane- the plane will pinpoint its own location, and broadcast where it is through radio signals. The transponder is used to help control towers identify them on radars (as opposed to UFOs).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The fact that these both went down at the same time seems to suggest that it was turned off deliberately. But <br />
the plane continued to ping the satellite later, suggesting that the plane was still functioning. It would have to be quite a specific thing to turn off those two components at the same time. If I knew more about the hardware behind the 777, I might be able to give you a better picture.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Essentially it seems like quite the coincidence, and when it looks like a coincidence, it probably isn't.</div>
<h4>
If intentional, what was the goal?</h4>
<div>
I don't pretend to be a mind reader. But even then, there are ways to help you identify what you have in mind. First of all, if we assume that someone has taken over the plane, we can examine what he has gained: control of an aircraft- specifically a large industrial size Boeing-777, control over the lives of 239 people. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So what can you do with a large plane? Well, for starters, a plane typically built to transport you. But given the size and difficulty of landing and taking off (not to mention the stigma of having stolen a commercial aircraft), its highly unlikely that the plane was stolen merely for transportation. After all, getting a smaller plane would be easier and more manageable- though you might not be able to get as far with it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Boeing_777-200ER_Malaysia_AL_(MAS)_9M-MRO_-_MSN_28420_404_(9272090094).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Boeing_777-200ER_Malaysia_AL_(MAS)_9M-MRO_-_MSN_28420_404_(9272090094).jpg" height="212" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is the plane that went missing. See those windows?<br />
Each one represents a row of seats. This plane is enormous.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
Next, it's important to note that its a Boeing 777. These planes are the world's largest twinjets and have a flight range of 5,235-9,370 nautical miles (<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">9,695 to 17,372 km). To put that in perspective, the earth is 40,075km in circumference. A Boeing 777 can fly a quarter of the earth's circumference in one fell swoop. Given how large they are, they also require large runways for landing and taking off. So that begs the question, if you were going to steal one, where would you put it? The darker side of this was depicted by the USA's 9-11 incident, where the large bulk of the planes were utilized as fast, flying, speeding projectiles to ram landmarks (those planes were Boeing 767s and 757s).</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">The fact of the matter is, if you were trying to take the plane, you would probably not have much of an opportunity to land it or hide it. Unless there is a secret runway or location that could be used for a safe (or unsafe) landing procedure that none of the world's satellite and governments are aware of, I find that "stealing a plane" is highly unlikely.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">The only way I could see it sort of working out is for the pilot or someone else to crash the plane (hopefully without killing himself) in an area where it could be quickly salvaged for parts. Perhaps on somewhat shallow water (for a safer landing and camouflage). The pilot would be literally risking his life, and would have to be able to land the plane safely so the parts would not be damaged. It's uncertain what would happen to the people though. The parts would be sold on the black market. However, the question is: Who would want to buy parts of a plane? Specifically a plane everyone is looking for?</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px;">There's also the people. 227 passengers and 12 staff. If it was a ransom situation, there has been no indication of it. Additionally, if you wanted a particular person dead, you could probably get to them in better and more efficient ways- with less risk to yourself. Additionally, you probably wouldn't need to fly for hours after you turned off your transponder and ADB-S if you just wanted to crash the plane. It seemed that he was probably headed toward something (or possibly away from something).</span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Of course, if we're assuming he was acting in good faith, perhaps there was a giant flying monster/UFO who not only was chasing the plane to the west, but also either blocked radio signals, or forced the pilot to turn it off. Probably pretty unlikely, but it would be lazy of me to rule it out.</div>
<h4>
Who did it?</h4>
<div>
The "who" seems to be valued quite highly by people, and I'm not entirely sure why. I'm not seeing the face of the person who did it will make things much better- other than creating hatred towards people the man is associated with.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Boeing_777-2H6-ER,_Malaysia_Airlines_AN0561319.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Boeing_777-2H6-ER,_Malaysia_Airlines_AN0561319.jpg" height="202" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An average person would not know what to do with this.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
But anyways, we can look at a few things that may help establish an identity. Assuming that the person controlling the plane was the same who turned off the transponder and ADB-S, then we can presume that he has understanding of how to fly the plane and operate the equipment. So, a trained pilot- of a Boeing 777. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This person would also have to be able to access the cockpit, where the transponder and ADB-S are located, as well as the controls of the plane. I'm not sure about you, but I don't think the staff typically takes kindly to random citizens going into the cockpit to hang out with the pilot. Either the staff just decided to let a citizen in (even a disguise probably wouldn't fool them, their crew is only 12), or the pilot(s) is our best bet.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Of course there's always the "hacker" idea, where somehow a hacker is able to remotely access and control a plane. The task would not be simple, and the method the hacker used would have to be more accurate than the tracking and control equipment the control towers have over the plane. They would have to do all this, without being caught.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Additionally, it would be quite likely that it wasn't a single person. It's actually far more likely that there were at least a couple people in on the situation. First of all, there are normally a couple of pilots. If one of your pilots began to divert the plane drastically off-course, you'd probably notice. Additionally, if there was some sort of scuffle, you'd hope that someone (either staff or passengers) would hear it. Then again, planes are loud, and passengers tend to be very passive (especially in first class... at night). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I understand that we often look for the "who" to establish the "why". But honestly it's really quite difficult to know why people do things, even when you know them very well. How many times have you asked someone you know, "why did you do that"? The reliability of going from "who" to "why" is very low, in my opinion.</div>
<h4>
Where is the plane now? What about the people?</h4>
<div>
This is the million dollar question, and the one everyone is aiming for. There are hopes that if the plane's black box is found, then everything will come into light. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d6/MH370_last_ping_corridors.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d6/MH370_last_ping_corridors.jpg" height="228" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">That's a LARGE area to search. I imagine you don't get<br />
phone service over those oceans.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
It wasn't mentioned how much fuel the plane had, but given that the 777 line of twinjets can fly a quarter of the world's circumference, it potentially could get pretty far. What was interesting was that there was a lack of satellite contact 7 hours and 30 minutes into the flight, when there had been regular ones starting from 1hour in. What stopped the pings?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There is an hour time frame between the two pings, something had to have happened within that window of time.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Its important to note that the people on this flight would probably want the world to know they are alive. there are 239 passengers, the likelihood of none of them wanting to let their families know they are alive is essentially nil. This suggests that they are not able to contact the outside world. Suggesting that they are either no longer of this world, or unable to access a phone, or phone service.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Working off this, if there are people who are alive and want to contact the outside world, either they don't have phones (possible), or don't have service (more likely). I wish that was more helpful, normally I would suggest a search in places where there is no phone service, but in Asia that is a very large space- especially over water. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It should be noted that the passengers on the plane may not have been completely aware of what was going on. How often do you fly across the country and wonder "why are we flying north? Oh well..." It would probably take a bit of time before it sunk in and they began to realize that something was wrong. It probably occurred significantly before the plane was scheduled to arrive, and yet the plane seemed to keep going for hours afterwards. Either the people who realized, did nothing. Or they were not able to act for whatever reason.</div>
<h4>
Conclusion? (tl;dr)</h4>
<div>
Currently, the international community are spending all their search efforts on a large and vast possible volume of ocean. It is of their belief that the plane went down at that point.<br />
<br />
Here's what seems likely to me.<br />
<br />
While it's possible that the plane could be controlled from elsewhere, it seems far more likely that someone was able to take control of the plane from within at 41 minutes. This wasn't met with much resistance from the crew or passengers due to either it being a perfectly acceptable scenario (pilot, or someone who needed to take over for the pilot) or being held down (i.e. take over). It's likely that there was a group of people who cooperated (co-pilot didn't care?).<br />
<br />
The plane began to fly to the west for a reason. It was headed for somewhere or away from something (perhaps away from highly visible areas, cell towers, giant monsters?). It was not just supposed to crash for no reason.<br />
<br />
The plane flew for about 7.5 to less than 8.5 hours before it stopped pinging (was supposed to send a ping to a satellite at 8.5 hours). Given the difficulty/impossibility of disabling the pinging system from inside the plane during flight (especially given what doing the task would need). This suggests that something happened to the plane during that hour. Most experts seem to believe that it went down. Given the 500km/hr route, it's a very large area to search.<br />
<br />
The question would be: <i>What could cause the engine to stop pinging the satellite at that point? </i><br />
<br />
Clearly, the most common and accepted response by the international community is that the plane went down- perhaps exploded. Killing all the people on-board (explaining why there hasn't been contact). But then that begs the question: What could cause such a thing? Did the pilot cause it to crash? Why crash it where it did? Was it forced to crash by someone else? (passengers? other sources?)<br />
<br />
But I wonder if there's a possible and plausible explanation for all the facts and situations that doesn't entail the plane exploding. The question would lie in "what would cause the engine to stop pinging"- perhaps landing the plane? As well as "what would be done to shut up all the passengers".<br />
<br />
I'm keenly keeping my eyes on the news.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-90301575193712883812014-03-17T16:21:00.001-07:002014-03-17T16:47:53.871-07:00Strategic Analysis Outcome: League of Legends IEM- IG v. FnaticThis is the second part of <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/strategic-analysis-league-of-legends.html">this article</a>, and the test to see if my analysis was accurate. You may have issues following this if you aren't especially familiar with <i>League of Legends</i> or its meta.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
The Laning Phase (less roaming, more CSing)</h3>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
The game begins with IG deciding to swap their top lane with their bottom lane. They were aware that the standard lanes would give the advantage to Fnatic, and a swapped lane would be much more successful. Additionally, given that they had 2 people (Vayne and Thresh) against 1 person (Lulu), Wukong took the opportunity to steal the red buff. <u>IG is recognizing that Fnatic needs to get a foothold early, and is playing to try and hold them down. </u></div>
<div>
<u><br /></u></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZvE1IVh.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/ZvE1IVh.png" height="168" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Kassadin dying so early was very bad for Fnatic's strategy</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
The advantage is pressed further when Lulu is sent back at 3:33, and Kassadin dies to Yasuo at 3:50. This is critical because Kassadin is such a core to Fnatic's strength in the midgame. If he falls behind, they may not have the strong mid game they need to really control the match. Lulu dies to a dive at top at 4:00, which is further putting Fnatic behind.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
However, Fnatic's botlane is able to take the first turret at 5:30, and the bot lane goes about trying to support the other lanes. They take the dragon at 8:35. It puts them up a bit, but they aren't as strong as they need to be going into midgame. This point in the game becomes troublesome for Fnatic, since IG starts to group as 4 and takes Fnatic's mid turret. They then begin to pressure the jungle (which is actually what Fnatic was hoping to do at this point in the game- but Fnatic fell too far behind early).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Fnatic tries to do their midgame strategy, and ganks bot with Nocturne and Kassadin, but due to a mix of being weaker and overchasing, they end up losing more than they gain. IG responds by invading the jungle as 4. They steal blue at 15 minutes, then red 3 minutes later.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>tl;dr- IG lane swaps and aggressively hold down Fnatic- denying Fnatic's midgame strength.</b></div>
<h3>
Midgame (dragons and outer/inner turrets)</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
At this point, Fnatic is in a lot of trouble. They aren't really able to fight a 5 man battle against IG, are extremely behind their lane equivalents, and are desperately losing map control (which makes it nigh impossible to splitpush). However, they do have something their opponents do not- siege defense and wave clear. Fnatic has the potential to turtle and play safe in order to get back into the game. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
However, when Fnatic notices IG's failure to pressure and take turrets (instead IG just tries to hold map control, and doesn't contest turrets- possibly due to Fnatic's siege defense) and the fact that IG began to split up- Fnatic took the opportunity to fight back. They kill Wukong, and take dragon at ~20 minutes. However, they lose members to an angry IG.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/mlkES38.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/mlkES38.png" height="164" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">IG finds the fight they wanted.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
IG groups and sits around the Baron pit at 23:05. When Fnatic comes to check (they need 5 men to contest baron), IG engages on them over the wall and gets the fight they want. They then proceed to take Baron, and kill the members of Fnatic who try to stop them. IG with Baron is incredibly strong.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
IG actually splitpushes and takes out mid, top and bottom turrets in quick succession. Normally I would have thought Fnatic would have tried to engage when IG was split, but a baron buffed Shyvanna would be too hard to kill. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>tl;dr- Fnatic is really far behind. IG is winning the midgame due to their early game advantages.</b></div>
<h3>
Late game (Barons, Inhibs, Nexus)</h3>
<div>
Fnatic is really behind right now. IG has full control of the map, along with their stronger teamfight. However, if Fnatic is able to win a fight around this point, they have the potential of taking back the game. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
At 31minutes, IG tries to start baron, and Fnatic chooses to engage at that time. This is actually a very interesting fight since it isn't a standard 5v5 which IG would win at. Instead, it is 2 skirmishes. When Nocturne tries to steal Baron, IG's team becomes split up- part of the team peels off for a fight, the other part stays to try and take Baron. This confusion is what Fnatic needs and wants. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/V5QnnxF.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/V5QnnxF.png" height="165" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Its more of a misplay of IG, but if Fnatic engineered this skirmish,<br />
thene they are geniuses</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Lucian's ult onto baron confuses IG. Half of the team peel away from it and engage, while the other half decides to stay and try to take the buff. The main cause is due to Thresh catching onto Kassadin.</li>
<li>When IG's Wukong, Thresh and Yasuo attack, they are knocked up by Lulu's ultimate, and then stunned by Annie's tibbers. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, Nocturne flashing in and trying to steal the Baron makes Shyvanna and Vayne turn their attention away from the engage.</li>
<li>In essence, it becomes</li>
<ul>
<li>Nocturne vs. Vayne and Shyvanna</li>
<li>Yasuo, Thresh, and Wukong (all chain stunned) vs. the rest of Fnatic</li>
</ul>
<li>Wukong panics when he notices that Nocturne had gone to steal Baron, and flashes into the pit trying to secure it. He does, but it leaves the fight as Yasuo and Thresh against 4 members of Fnatic.</li>
<ul>
<li>As expected, Yasuo and Thresh both fall, while Nocturne falls in the back</li>
</ul>
<li>The rest of IG decides to engage with their new baron buff. But at this point the fight is essentially even, and Fnatic survives with more members and take an objective. </li>
</ul>
<div>
The fight is more of a mistake on the part of IG than anything. If they had chosen to all disengage and attack Fnatic, the fight would have probably turned out differently. But since they split, they weren't able to take advantage of their teamcomp. If they weren't already incredibly ahead, that fight would have been very in favor of Fnatic.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
IG groups as 5 champions and tries to pressure mid. But the waves in bot and top are beginning to push in favor of Fnatic. They decide to split apart and shove top and bot. However this ends up being a mistake. Fnatic responds immediately by picking off Thresh with 5 champions, and takes a turret. Normally, you wouldn't expect this.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
At 38:31, IG gets a bit desperate and tries to engage onto Annie in the jungle- just trying to start a fight. However, this isn't the best situation as he is melted before his team can respond. However, Fnatic sees the advantage of a 4v5 and walks right into the outstretched arms of 4 members of IG. The fight ends poorly for Fnatic due to the clever tactic and strength of IG. They proceed to take the mid turret and inhibitor.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The last fight actually comes from a surprising siege on bot turret by IG. Shyvanna no longer fears the turret and is willing to engage into a teamfight if Fnatic step up. Fnatic tries to burst down Shyvanna, but fails to take her down. The turret falls, and IG immediately engages in a fight.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>tl;dr- Fnatic shows their veteran mental control in the late game. IG makes several mistakes and seem unsure of how to end the game, and Fnatic takes advantage of this confusion. However, IG was just too far ahead in terms of levels and strength that they were able to just brute strength win.</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h2>
Observations/Analysis</h2>
<div>
This game was interesting because the two teams had such differing strengths, which really meant that they way they controlled the flow of the game would determine the winner. IG played the early game very well with the lane swaps and counterganks. They were also able to group relatively quickly at 11 minutes and start taking advantage of their teamcomp.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The main factor that let them do this is due to Kassadin's unexpected first blood at midlane, which put Fnatic incredibly behind. I recently heard it was partially due to Yasuo getting lucky with 2 crits, allowing him to get a kill that no one expected him to.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ultimately IG's teamcomp was very good at teamfighting- the wombo combo style, but not especially strong at sieging. There came points where IG was uncertain what to do, and wandered around in confusion- Fnatic took advanage of this and picked them off. Fnatic also showed their steel mental fortitude and ability to make plays when things looked grim.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As far as how accurate my analysis was, well, parts of it were right, other parts were way off. Both teams did some things that I wasn't expecting. But it really came down to IG taking map control early and preventing Fnatic's strengths from taking over the game with map control, roaming, and splitpushing.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-81993176976385035602014-03-17T16:20:00.002-07:002014-03-17T16:48:16.311-07:00Strategic Analysis: League of Legends IEM- IG v. Fnatic<i>League of Legends</i> is a very popular online video game that has deep strategic roots and an insane learning curve. I've been interested in the strategic underpinnings of it for a while, and finally feel somewhat comfortable enough to try and analyze the strategy behind it.<br />
<br />
I decided to start by analyzing the team compositions of a recent match. You can find the match <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odVfq2KyOwE">here</a>.<br />
<br />
I started by watching the Picks and Bans, and then proceeded to analyze each team composition's strengths, weaknesses, and goals. Then I tried to imagine how it might play out and how they might clash. I should note that everything I wrote here was from before I watched the actual match.<br />
<br />
<h3>
<u>IG's team:</u></h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/OyvFloG.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/OyvFloG.png" height="400" width="315" /></a></div>
<div>
<u><br /></u></div>
<div>
<u><br /></u></div>
<b>Top</b>: Shyvanna<br />
<b>Jungle</b>: Wukong<br />
<b>Mid</b>: Yasuo<br />
<b>ADC</b>: Vayne<br />
<b>Support</b>: Thresh<br />
<br />
<b>Teamfights</b>- IG's team composition is essentially a wombo-combo team. There are 4 people who can engage a teamfight that would be followed up with stacked CC. If Yasuo or Wukong manage to knock up 5 champions at once, Fnatic is almost guaranteed to lose a few members before they can even move again. This is definitely a strong suit for them, so 5v5 engages around Dragon, Baron, and Turrets favor them.<br />
<br />
<b>Skirmish/Catch ability</b>- IG's team can use their ults to catch out champions in the jungle. However, using their ultimates will make them weaker in teamfights since it will take away a stacked CC. But Thresh has incredible catch potential.<br />
<br />
<b>Sieging</b>- IG's team is not really a siege composition. They only have 1 real ranged champion who can pick at the turret. They are much more dependent on engaging once the enemy is hidden behind turret.<br />
<br />
<b>Turret Defence</b>- IG sort of lacks safe waveclear, so they will have trouble keeping the enemy from picking at their tower every wave. However they have a chance to engage in those scenarios.<br />
<br />
<b>Pushing</b>- IG has decent non-safe waveclear with Shyvanna and Wukong, and potentially Yasuo and Vayne if they get a static shiv. Its unlikely that they will try to engage in a splitpush though, given their teamfight strength, and weaker escapes.<br />
<br />
<b><u>In summary</u>: </b><br />
IG is a very powerful teamfight composition. They will want to group up as 5 men and try to force engages at dragon and baron once they have their ultimates. They are not so strong at sieging, so their objective control comes after winning a teamfight or getting a kill. However, their strength lies in their coordination, if they get skirmished and waste their ults on 1 or 2 members, they are in trouble.<br />
<br />
<h3>
<u>Fnatic's Team:</u></h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/KZ2mIWD.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/KZ2mIWD.png" height="400" width="312" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Top</b>: Lulu<br />
<b>Jungle</b>: Nocturne<br />
<b>Mid</b>: Kassadin<br />
<b>ADC</b>: Lucian<br />
<b>Support</b>: Annie<br />
<br />
<b>Teamfight</b>- Fnatic's teamfight consists of engages by Annie or Nocturne and a follow up by a Lulu ultimate. The team isn't very tanky and lacks hard CC though. They aren't so much a wombo combo team as they are a motley set of champions who all do different things.<br />
<br />
<b>Skirmish/Catch potential</b>- The Kassadin and Nocturne make a very powerful gank and kill squad given their mobility and CC. The two of them have the potential to really catch an enemy by surprise, and delete them from the battlefield very quickly. Additionally, Annie adds for some solid back up CC.<br />
<br />
<b>Sieging</b>- Fnatic's team is a good siege composition. Lulu and Lucian can poke down towers hard while keeping enemies at bay through powerful harass. The annie stun is a potential disengage, and the mobility of the rest of the team makes them capable of escaping if needed.<br />
<br />
<b>Siege Defence</b>- A Lucian Q and a Lulu Q can essentially destroy a wave from a safe distance. Basically this teamcomp is very strong against sieges. The enemy team will have to choose to either fight under tower or splitpush against them.<br />
<br />
<b>Pushing</b>- Fnatic's splitpushing is quite strong. Given the strength of the escapes from Kassadin and Lucian, they potentially have the ability to splitpush hard.<br />
<br />
<b><u>In Summary</u></b>:<br />
Fnatic is a very strong pick composition, as well as siege and siege defence composition. They will want Kassadin and Nocturne to make plays and control the game through catching people out. To do this, they will need to gain control of the map through wards- both pink and green. They might also need to get Kassadin ahead, and probably take midlane. This team thrives in a scenario where the enemy team is uncertain or confused. It punishes mistakes quickly and powerfully.<br />
<br />
It's also has members who make great splitpushers given their ability to escape.<br />
<br />
<h2>
The Clash</h2>
This is all about how the team compositions will clash. Specifically, we will talk about what each team will try to make happen. IG will want to group and fight as 5- they are too strong not to. Fnatic does have an advantage on most lane match-ups:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Lulu can harass Shyvanna very hard </li>
<li>Lucian and Annie can abuse Vayne's weak early game </li>
<li>I'm not fully familiar with the Yasuo v. Kassadin match-up but Kassadin is notoriously weak early game.</li>
<li>Nocturne and Wukong are probably equal duelists early on, with Wukong having a bit less sustain. However in a fight, it comes down to who outplays the other- rather even</li>
</ul>
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<br />
<b>Fnatic</b> will want to get Kassadin a few kills, and gain control of the map through warding. They can do this by taking advantage of their potential early game harass advantage- hopefully they will be able to harass their lane opponents back to base in order to take map pressure with towers and dragons. Fnatic's midgame with a roaming Kassadin and Nocturne is extremely strong, and they want to take as much of an advantage during the time that IG is not grouped as possible.<br />
<br />
Additionally, against a 5 man group, Fnatic will be able to splitpush in order to dampen the ability for IG to take advantages. Fnatic should try to pressure multiple lanes at once, and basically beat IG at rotating between lanes given their stronger splitpush and sieging.<br />
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<b>IG</b> will want to avoid allowing Fnatic to get far ahead early game, and by mid game will want to group as five and contest Dragon- trying to force Fnatic in a 5v5 teamfight. They want to find a perfect engage, and should probably build tanky if they want to engage under turret. Unfortunately they don't have much in terms of siege potential -given their lack of poke and waveclear- so unless they choose to dive the turret, they won't be able to take turrets without a teamfight in advance.<br />
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In general their damage is pretty spread out- Shyvanna and Wukong deal a surprising amount of damage for being so tanky, and Yasuo and Vayne have incredibly high damage outputs. Its not a huge deal if they lose one champion against Fnatic, since they should still be able to find some in the rest of the team. That said, they are pretty dependant on getting their CC combo down- so their ults are important. They will want to use their ults at a precise time while Fnatic is grouped.<br />
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Fights in the jungle are good for them, and fights at Baron and Dragon are also good for them. If they build tanky enough, they could also potentially fight under tower.<br />
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<h3>
Conclusion/Outcome</h3>
After typing this up, I proceeded to watch the game and see how my analysis actually played out. Here's the follow-up article, and descriptions of how the game played out.<br />
<br />
I wrote up a short follow-up article about how the game played out compared to how I expected it to. You can find the article <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/strategic-analysis-outcome-league-of.html">here</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-35967566863579151412014-03-16T23:45:00.002-07:002014-03-16T23:45:25.417-07:00Practice Lateral Thinking with Riddle #3: Black and White Hat Demon<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span data-mce-style="line-height: 1.6;" style="line-height: 1.6;"><b>Riddle of the Black and White Hat Demon<br />(Difficulty: Hard)</b></span></h2>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<span data-mce-style="line-height: 1.6;" style="line-height: 1.6;">Yet another riddle that I've done a poor job renaming. This is a riddle I heard while I was in Game Theory class several years ago, I take no credit for it other than butchering the actual details.</span></div>
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</ul>
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<span data-mce-style="line-height: 1.6;" style="line-height: 1.6;">It goes a little something like this:</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<a data-mce-href="http://imgur.com/HAGgiYA" href="http://imgur.com/HAGgiYA" style="-webkit-transition: 0.2s ease-in; color: #fa4e4e; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.2s ease-in;"><img alt="" data-mce-src="http://i.imgur.com/HAGgiYA.jpg" src="http://i.imgur.com/HAGgiYA.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default;" title="The demon is an evil oni" /></a></div>
<blockquote style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.027451); border-left-color: rgb(228, 227, 227); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 3px; border-right-color: rgb(228, 227, 227); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 3px; color: #999999; font-family: TypoSlabserifLightRegular, 'Droid Serif', Georgia, serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 30px; margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0.75em 35px;">
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Somewhere in the world there is a small village of people who live on a tiny island. They have a population of only 100 people, but every single citizen has perfect logic, perfect memory, perfect hearing, and perfect vision. Life is good on the island.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
However, one day a powerful and cruel demon appears and declares that he will kill the inhabitants. But unfortunately for him there are rules that he must follow. He has to let the citizens play for their lives. He must line up all the citizens single-file so they all face the same direction. He must then go about putting black hats and white hats on their heads (he does it randomly, so there is no set number of white or black hats). The citizens are not able to move, but they are able to see every person in front of them, as well as every hat they wear. The citizens are not allowed to gesture or speak until the demon gets to them, and they cannot see behind them. However, they can hear what the others say.</div>
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The demon then starts at the back of the line and asks "what color of hat are you wearing?". To which the citizen is allowed to say only "black" or "white", and nothing else. If they are correct, they live. If they are incorrect, they die.</div>
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The demon gives them a night to congregate and talk out their plan. The ritual starts in the morning.</div>
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What should the citizens do?</div>
</blockquote>
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Whew, what long riddle. No doubt you're a bit unsure of where to start.</div>
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Here are some things to consider:</div>
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<li>The citizens are essentially unable to act until it comes to their turn. When it arrives at their turn, the only thing they are able to do is say "black" or "white". So whatever you do, the response of "black" or "white" has to be telling.</li>
<li>The citizens are basically super-human. So if you think of an answer that wouldn't work for normal humans, you might actually be okay.</li>
</ul>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>COMMON STRATEGIES (possible answers you may have come up with)</strong></span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Given that, here are some ideas that I've heard which are good, but not the best response:</div>
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<li><strong><em>Strategy 1:</em></strong> Say the color of the hat of the person directly in front of you. While everyone things this plan is brilliant at first, unfortunately it doesn't save as many people as you might think. <span data-mce-style="line-height: 1.6;" style="line-height: 1.6;"><br /><a data-mce-href="http://imgur.com/wyJv5H2" href="http://imgur.com/wyJv5H2" style="-webkit-transition: 0.2s ease-in; color: #fa4e4e; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.2s ease-in;"><img alt="" data-mce-src="http://i.imgur.com/wyJv5H2.jpg" src="http://i.imgur.com/wyJv5H2.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default;" title="The most common answer" /></a><br />Lets say these are the hat colors of the first 6 people:</span><strong>BWWBWB</strong><br /><em>B= black hat</em><br /><em>W= white hat</em>Here is how it would play out:1. first person(B) says "white" since the next citizen is wearing a white hat- dies<br />2. The second person(W) says "white" because he knows his hat color is white- lives<br />3. The third person(W) says "black" because the next person is wearing black- dies<br />4. The fourth person (B) says "black" because he knows he is wearing black- lives<br />5. The fifth person (W) says "black" because the next person is wearing black- dies<br />6. The sixth person (B) says "black" because he knows his hat is black- lives<span data-mce-style="line-height: 1.6;" style="line-height: 1.6;">As we can see, every other person will live, and if the person in between is lucky, he gets to live too. With this method you will save somewhere above 50% of all citizens. The method is not terrible, but given the circumstances there are better methods.</span></li>
<li><strong><em>Strategy 2:</em></strong> Another interesting response I've heard is, "The first person whose turn it is, will pick the color that has the majority".So the first person will look at the number of black and white hats, and see which color is more popular. He would then say "white" if white is the dominant hat color. The rest of the people in line would also say that color. So it would basically be responding with all white, or all black. This is an interesting strategy since it guarantees that at least the majority will survive (51% and upwards). Depending on the demographic of black hat wearers and white hat wearers, this could do better than the previous answer. But is not the best.</li>
<li><em><strong>Strategy 3:</strong></em> In this strategy, every person will look at the line ahead of him and say the most common color of hat. This is essentially a mix of the two strategies above. The thought behind it is that in case there is a block of black hats in a majority of white hats such as WWWWWBBB, nearing the end you will be able to account for those black hats with perfect accuracy; which is something strategy 2 had issues with.However great this strategy seems at first, it is ultimately flawed. I'll demonstrate it with an example:If you have this pattern: BWBWBWBWBWBWWith an equal number of black and white hats, you will end up saving no one:<br />The first person will see a majority of white hats and say W (and die), the second person will see a majority of black hats and say B (and die), this process continues until everyone dies.</li>
</ul>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Go ahead, give it a shot.<br />
I'll provide a walkthrough with the answer at this link here (coming soon).</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-13620936509779601492014-03-13T00:15:00.003-07:002014-03-13T00:15:24.967-07:00Musings of Strange: I hate the word "Obvious"Originally I had planned to release a video along with my next article. It would have been a departure from everything that I had made so far, and I had hoped it would bring some excitement. Unfortunately, the data was lost, and now i'm forced to hold it back for a while (I may still release the article though).<div>
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<div>
In the meantime, I've decided to create an "informal" section of my blog dedicated to general thoughts and musings. This would involve less "how to" and provide more lively commentary. This section is known as "Musings of Strange". </div>
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Today's musing is about the word "obvious" and how I hate it.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/NdEh86A.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/NdEh86A.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Look at that smug face....</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The word "<b>obvious</b>" is a trap.</div>
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One of the things I hate most, is when someone comes to me after I explain something, and they say "Well that's just <i>obvious</i>!". I have to quickly compose myself and explain that it really isn't, and that its only through set up and clarity that the idea seems to be "obvious." By declaring something as "obvious" we end up discounting several other possibilities, and stick to one way to view the world.</div>
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At first glance, "obvious" seems to be a simple descriptive word that we use to say that something is "apparent to everyone" or "can't be missed". However, it is a trap for a few reasons.</div>
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<b>The first reason</b> is because the idea of "obvious" is a lie. There is really no such thing as something that is apparent to everyone. The only reason two people can agree that something is "obvious", is because they have the same thoughts and background knowledge in common. So when you say "that's obvious", all you are really saying is "If you think the way I do, have the same knowledge as I do, and view the world in the same way I do, then it's clear and apparent". </div>
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That hardly seems to be counting "everyone".</div>
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<div>
I should make it clear. I'm not necessarily talking about "obvious" in terms of the senses like sight and hearing. If you and a friend both experience seeing a Tyrannosaurus Rex walking through downtown, then it would be "obvious" to both of you, because you both shared the same sensation and experience to say "there was a T-Rex downtown." Anyone who saw it, would have the ability to say that.</div>
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<div>
But when we talk about things like "It's obvious, he was the murderer", what are we basing that off of? Why are we discounting the possibility of other people being murderers? It's one thing to declare someone as the most likely culprit, it's another to say that he's the "obvious" choice.</div>
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<div>
<b>The second reason</b> the word "obvious" is a trap, is because we will stop thinking once we have declared something to be "obvious". If we consider something to be the "most apparent", we will also believe that it is most likely to be true. What happens then is that we inflict ourselves with confirmation bias, and will choose the evidence that best illustrates the point we believe to be true. We fail to see how other possibilities are viable, all because the thing is "obvious".</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
The common method in which we do this is by responding to alternate possibilities like so: "I can see that as possible, but this one is the case, it's just obvious". Which is really just a polite way of blowing someone off.</div>
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Anyways, that's enough of a rant for now.</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-67513110218890736812014-03-05T00:23:00.000-08:002014-03-17T16:49:55.060-07:00Riddle #2 Walkthrough: The Salesman and the 3 Daughters (Spoilers)<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>This post is meant to walk you through the thinking you would have to do in order to solve the "Salesman and the 3 Daughters" riddle. If you have not read the riddle question yet, you should click<a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/riddle-2-walkthrough-salesman-and-3.html"> here</a>.</strong></span><br />
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><em><br /></em></strong></span>
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><em>Walkthrough *Warning: Possible Spoilers*</em></strong></span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Well, what would the answer look like?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
There are 3 daughters, and they are an age. So the answer will be 3 numbers that are larger than 0.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Next, we know that the numbers all multiply to equal 36 right? Here, I'll even do the work for you:</div>
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<li>36 x 1 x 1</li>
<li>18 x 2 x 1</li>
<li>12 x 3 x 1</li>
<li>9 x 2 x 2</li>
<li>3 x 3 x 4</li>
<li>6 x 6 x 1</li>
<li>6 x 3 x 2</li>
</ul>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<a data-mce-href="http://imgur.com/CHJg7rT" href="http://imgur.com/CHJg7rT" style="-webkit-transition: 0.2s ease-in; color: #fa4e4e; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.2s ease-in;"><img alt="" data-mce-src="http://i.imgur.com/CHJg7rT.jpg" src="http://i.imgur.com/CHJg7rT.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default;" title="Remember this from math class?" /></a><br />
Those are all the number sets that multiply out into 36. So we know the three numbers are one of those sets of three.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
But which one?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<em>Here's where it gets interesting. </em></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
So let's think about it for a moment. What is the difference between the Insurance Salesman and us in this scenario. It's pretty much just that he knows the number of the house next door, while we do not.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
So, let's pretend that you knew the number. Or that the number of the house next door was given to you. Lets say for sake of example the number was 72.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
How would you figure it out from there?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Well, once we know the number of the house next door, it becomes rather simple word problem from mathematics class.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Since you know that the the ages of the daughters added together is equal to the number on the house next door, we would go ahead and add each of the sets together. Since we know the number of the house next door is 72, we would look for the set of numbers that add up to 72, right?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
So if the insurance salesman has all that information, why does he need a third clue?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="text-decoration: underline;">*Warning* Likely spoilers follow</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
You would only ask for a third clue if you couldn't solve the problem with two clues, right? So why wouldn't the insurance salesman be able to figure out the three numbers from the two clues?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Well, it's pretty difficult to understand without somewhat experiencing what he saw, so let's look at the sets and how they add up:</div>
<ul style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 1.5em 3em;">
<li>36 + 1 + 1 =38</li>
<li>18 + 2 + 1 = 21</li>
<li>12 + 3 + 1 = 16</li>
<li>9 + 2 + 2 = 13</li>
<li>3 + 3 + 4 = 10</li>
<li>6 + 6 + 1 = 13</li>
<li>6 + 3 + 2 = 11</li>
</ul>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Basically we are assuming these are the only possible numbers the house next door could have. If the house next door was "38" we would know the number set was 36,1,1. But there is one number which doesn't give us a clear answer. Do you see it?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Well, the number that would cause us trouble is the number 13. The reason is that there are two number sets that add up to 13. So unlike any of the other numbers, if the house next door is number 13, we still aren't certain of the ages of her daughters.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
The last part is the third clue: "My eldest daughter plays piano".</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<strong>The Answer *SPOILERS*</strong></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
If you are reading this because you gave up, I suggest you take a look through the walkthrough. The way you solve this riddle is through a bit of clever thinking, and hopefully I provide enough hints to guide you to figuring it out for yourself. But if you really want the answer: The ages of the woman's children are: 9, 2, 2. The reason is because the number of the house next door was 13, and since there was an eldest daughter, the answer could not be 6,6,2.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
This is one of my favorite riddles because it doesn't require a lot of knowledge as compared to some riddles. It just requires a bit of clever thinking and resourcefulness.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-89577844168831326852014-03-03T17:04:00.000-08:002014-03-17T16:50:25.716-07:00Practice Lateral Thinking with Riddle #2: The Salesman and the 3 Daughters<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
This a fantastic little riddle I heard from Day9, a popular Starcraft commentator. I'm obviously going to somewhat butcher it by telling it from memory.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<a data-mce-href="http://imgur.com/FTj2EE8" href="http://imgur.com/FTj2EE8" style="-webkit-transition: 0.2s ease-in; color: #fa4e4e; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.2s ease-in;"><img alt="" data-mce-src="http://i.imgur.com/FTj2EE8.jpg" src="http://i.imgur.com/FTj2EE8.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default;" title="She has no fingers" /></a></div>
<blockquote style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.027451); border-left-color: rgb(228, 227, 227); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 3px; border-right-color: rgb(228, 227, 227); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 3px; color: #999999; font-family: TypoSlabserifLightRegular, 'Droid Serif', Georgia, serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 30px; margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0.75em 35px;">
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
There was once an insurance salesman who went door to door trying to sell insurance.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
He happened to knock upon a door in a particular cul de sac, and a nice woman opened the door. The insurance salesman then proceeded to talk about how great his insurance is.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
The woman stopped him and said, "Hold on. I have a challenge for you. I like my insurance agents to be clever, and if you can answer my question, I will buy your insurance."</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
The insurance salesman thought about it for a moment and decided to play.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
She said, "I have three daughters, and I want you to guess their ages".</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
"okay", said the agent</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
"Your first hint is: Their ages multiplied together is 36".</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
"Okay", said the agent, while trying to think of the possibilities</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
"Your second hint is: Their ages added together is equal to the number of the house next door"</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
The insurance saleman excused himself for a moment and went next door. He saw the number of the house, and returned.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
"I need one more hint" he said.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
She smiled and said, "Your final hint is that my eldest daughter plays piano".</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
How old are the daughters?</div>
</blockquote>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Your immediate response is probably the same response as most people who hear this riddle, "wait, you aren't going to tell me the number of the house next door?"</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Nope, you don't need it. You can figure it out without it.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
So where do you start?</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
Here's a suggestion, start with the first hint, and think about it for a moment.</div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1.5em;">
<b>If you're truly stumped and need someone to walk you through the thinking. Maybe start reading the walkthrough a short step at a time. It can be found <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/03/riddle-2-walkthrough-salesman-and-3.html">here</a>.</b></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-6937407886821871992014-02-27T16:16:00.003-08:002014-03-17T16:51:00.187-07:00Einstein Puzzle Non-Spoiler Answer CheckerI built this little checker in order for those who don't want the answer spoiled for them, to check their work. This is specifically for the Einstein Puzzle.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/try-einstein-puzzle.html">Click here to go back to the puzzle</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einsteins-puzzle-thorough-walkthrough_25.html">Click here to go to the walkthrough</a><br />
<h2>
<u>How to use it:</u></h2>
Let's say you want to check to see if the "Brit lives in the Red house". Below are a few charts separated by the Nationality of the owner. I've hidden the answers by changing the background color to the same as the font color. You can see inside the boxes if you highlight them.<br />
<br />
Here are more detailed instructions:<br />
<br />
<b>Step 1.</b> Go down to the section with the heading "Brit".<br />
<b>Step 2.</b>Next, look at the chart. Find the column that says "color", and find "Red" in there.<br />
<b>Step 3.</b> You should see something that looks like a little grey rectangle, like this:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Red <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></blockquote>
Highlight the black square with your mouse (left click and hold it down. Then drag over it). It should look something like this:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #6fa8dc;">Red Y</span></blockquote>
<span style="background-color: black;"><br /></span>
<b>Step 4. </b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>Key:</b> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul>
<li>If the letter inside the grey rectangle is <b>"Y"</b>, that means that (in our example), the Brit DOES live in the red house. </li>
<li>If the letter inside is a <b>"N"</b>, then the Brit does not.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<br />
<b>Step 5.</b> Go ahead and check your answers. Careful not to highlight too much and spoil it for yourself though!<br />
<br />
<i>Note</i>: You may have a few issues if you are using a mobile.<br />
------------------------------------------<br />
<h3>
<u>Brit</u></h3>
<table style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><span style="background-color: red;">Drinks</span></td>
<td><span style="background-color: orange;">Pet</span></td>
<td><span style="background-color: yellow;">Smokes</span></td>
<td><span style="background-color: lime;">Color</span></td>
<td><span style="background-color: cyan;">Number</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tea <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Dogs <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Pall Mall <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td>
<td>Red <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td>
<td>1 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Coffee <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Birds <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td>
<td>Dunhill <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Green <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>2 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Milk <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td>
<td>Fish <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Blends <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Yellow <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>3 <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Juice <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Cats <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Bluemaster <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Blue <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>4 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Water <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Horses <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>Prince <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>White <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
<td>5 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
---------------------------<br />
<div>
<h3>
<u>Swede</u></h3>
<table style="width: 300px;"><tbody>
<tr><td><span style="background-color: red;">Drinks</span></td><td><span style="background-color: orange;">Pet</span></td><td><span style="background-color: yellow;">Smokes</span></td><td><span style="background-color: lime;">Color</span></td><td><span style="background-color: cyan;">Number</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Tea <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dogs <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Pall Mall <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Red <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>1 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Coffee <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Birds <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dunhill <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Green <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>2 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Milk <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Fish <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Blends <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Yellow <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>3 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Juice <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Cats <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Bluemaster <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Blue <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>4 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Water <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Horses <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Prince <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>White <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>5 <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<h3>
-------------------------------</h3>
<h3>
<u>Dane</u></h3>
<table style="width: 300px;"><tbody>
<tr><td><span style="background-color: red;">Drinks</span></td><td><span style="background-color: orange;">Pet</span></td><td><span style="background-color: yellow;">Smokes</span></td><td><span style="background-color: lime;">Color</span></td><td><span style="background-color: cyan;">Number</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Tea <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Dogs <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Pall Mall <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Red <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>1 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Coffee <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Birds <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dunhill <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Green <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>2 <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Milk <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Fish <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Blends <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Yellow <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>3 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Juice <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Cats <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Bluemaster <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Blue <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>4 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Water <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Horses <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Prince <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>White <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>5 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
--------------------------------</h3>
<h3>
<u>Norwegian</u></h3>
</div>
<div>
<table style="width: 300px;"><tbody>
<tr><td><span style="background-color: red;">Drinks</span></td><td><span style="background-color: orange;">Pet</span></td><td><span style="background-color: yellow;">Smokes</span></td><td><span style="background-color: lime;">Color</span></td><td><span style="background-color: cyan;">Number</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Tea <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dogs <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Pall Mall <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Red <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>1 <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Coffee <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Birds <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dunhill <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Green <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>2 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Milk <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Fish <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Blends <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Yellow <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>3 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Juice <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Cats <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Bluemaster <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Blue <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>4 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Water <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Horses <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Prince <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>White <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>5 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span><br />
<div>
<span style="background-color: black;"><br /></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
-----------------------------</div>
<h3>
<u>German</u></h3>
<div>
<table style="width: 300px;"><tbody>
<tr><td><span style="background-color: red;">Drinks</span></td><td><span style="background-color: orange;">Pet</span></td><td><span style="background-color: yellow;">Smokes</span></td><td><span style="background-color: lime;">Color</span></td><td><span style="background-color: cyan;">Number</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Tea <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dogs <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Pall Mall <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Red <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>1 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Coffee <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Birds <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Dunhill <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Green <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>2 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Milk <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Fish <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>Blends <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Yellow <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>3 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Juice <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Cats <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Bluemaster <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Blue <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>4 <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>Water <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Horses <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>Prince <span style="background-color: #666666;">Y</span></td><td>White <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span></td><td>5 <span style="background-color: #666666;">N</span><br />
<div>
<span style="background-color: black;"><br /></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-54032497864657626972014-02-27T15:47:00.001-08:002014-03-17T16:51:47.870-07:00Einstein's Puzzle Thorough Walkthrough (Spoilers)- Pt3<div>
<b>This is the walkthrough for Einstein's Puzzle. If you haven't read the original puzzle/question, you should go ahead and click on the link below. Below will be the explanation of the method I utilized to solve the puzzle. If you want to avoid spoilers you should view the original question before reading below.</b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>For Previous parts: <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einsteins-puzzle-thorough-walkthrough_25.html">Part 1</a>, <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einsteins-puzzle-thorough-walkthrough_26.html">Part 2</a></b><br />
<b><br /></b><a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/try-einstein-puzzle.html">You can find the Puzzle here.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einstein-puzzle-non-spoiler-answer.html">Click here for a Spoiler-free answer check</a><br />
<br />
<u><b>Walkthrough:</b></u><br />
<br />
So this is simple logic puzzle with no real tricks or second guesses. So all you really need is organization to solve this puzzle. I'll be breaking this walkthrough into parts, so you can try it on your own after reading an article:<br />
<br />
Here's how I solved it.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/u8EHcBI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/u8EHcBI.jpg" height="250" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
-----------------------------------------------------<br />
<div>
So here is my three categories of clues (for your ease of reference)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Direct Link:</b></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Brit * Red House</li>
<li>Swede * Dogs</li>
<li>Dane * Tea</li>
<li>Green * Coffee</li>
<li>Pall Mall * Birds</li>
<li>Yellow * Dunhill</li>
<li>#3 * Milk</li>
<li>Norwegian * #1</li>
<li>Bluemaster * Juice</li>
<li>German * Prince<br /><br /><b>Unlinked:</b></li>
<li>Green (L) White</li>
<li>Blends (N) Cats</li>
<li>Horse (N) Dunhill</li>
<li>Norwegian (N) Blue</li>
<li>Blends (N) Water<br /><br /><b>Negative Link:</b></li>
<li>Green ~ White</li>
<li>Blends ~ Cats</li>
<li>Horse ~ Dunhill</li>
<li>Norwegian ~ Blue</li>
<li>Blends ~ Water</li>
</ol>
<div>
<b>Key:<br />* = linked</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b>(L) = is left of</b></div>
<div>
<b>(N) = is next to<br />~ = Is not linked to</b></div>
<div>
<br />
The reason I do this is to make referencing and understanding the clues much faster and more efficient. I refer to each of these clues by #. For instance the link between house #3 and Milk is Clue 7.<br />
<b>----------------------------------------------------</b><br />
<b><br /></b></div>
</div>
<div>
So this is probably the point where most people become frustrated and begin to guess. But we don't want to do that. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Instead, you start to look at the clues more carefully and see how they interact with one another.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><u>Deduction 1:</u></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;">So we know that the Norwegian is house #1 (Clue 8), and is on the far left. We also know that the house next to it is Blue (Clue 14). Since there is only 1 house next to it, then house #2 must be blue. So Blue * #2. We can use that to update our lists. </span></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;">If it can't be blue, then it can't be #2. And vice-versa.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;">Sadly this only really affects the Brit, by eliminating the possibility that he could be #2.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><u>Deduction 2:</u></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: 15px;">We know that the Green house is to the Left of the white one. So if Green is #3, then White must be #4. or if Green is #4 then Green is #5. We get some interesting results from this:</span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>If we combine this with Deduction 1, which says that #2 is blue, then it means that either Green is #3 and white is #4, or Green is #4 and white is #5. Essentially, Green can't be linked with #5, nor #1.<br /> </li>
<li>Since we know White has to be to the left of Green, then Green can't be linked to #1, since white would have to be #2, which clashes with our knowledge that Blue is #2. Additionally, White can't be #1 since there would be no way for Green to be on the left (there is no house #0). So neither Green nor White can be #1, nor #2.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
The Norwegian's data is updated. Since he is #1, It eliminates the possibility of him being Green and White. Since the Brit is Red, and house # 2 is blue, this means that we know the Norwegian is in Yellow. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This updates the Data of almost everyone. </div>
<div>
Since the Brit is in Red, and the Norwegian is in Yellow</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Swede: Green, White, Blue</li>
<li>Dane: White, Blue</li>
<li>German: Green, White, Blue</li>
</ul>
<div>
Additionally, Since we know the Norwegian is in Yellow, Thanks to Clue 6, we also knows he smokes Dunhill.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
More updates to possibilities:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Brit- Pall Mall, Blends, Bluemaster</li>
<li>Swede- Blends, Bluemaster</li>
<li>Dane- Pall Mall, Blends</li>
<li>Norwegian- Dunhill</li>
</ul>
<div>
From Clue 13, we know the Dunhill Smoker is next to the Horses, and as a result is not a Horse owner (clue 18). Additionally, since the Norwegian is #1 (clue 8), and since he is the Dunhill smoker, then #2 is the Horse owner (Clue 13). So if you don't have the possibility to own horses, you can't be #2</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Norwegian- Birds, Fish, Cat</li>
<li>Swede- Dogs</li>
<ul>
<li>(Can't be #2)</li>
<ul>
<li>#3, #4, #5 are the remaining possibilities</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Brit- Birds, Fish, Cat, Horses</li>
<li>Dane- Birds, Fish, Cat, Horses</li>
<li>German- Fish, Cat, Horses</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
-------------------------------</div>
<div>
<b>At this point, you start to double check the <u>non-nationality link clues</u> against your newly acquired information (The ones that link non-nationality traits together): </b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>(small)Deduction 3:</u></div>
<div>
Since we know house #1 * yellow, #2 * Blue, then all we have left are Red, Green, and White. Since we know that Green must be to the left of White (clue 11), then Red can only be #3 or #5 since it can't be in the center.</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>So the Brit is limited to #3, or #5.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>(small)Deduction 4:</u></div>
<div>
Due to Clue 5- only the person who smokes Pall Mall can be the bird owner, and vice versa.</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Update: Norwegian can only own: Fish Cat, Horses</li>
</ul>
<div>
<u>(small)Deduction 5:</u></div>
<div>
Clue 9 says that Bluemaster and Juice must be linked. So only if both of those are possibilities can it apply to you.</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Update: Norwegian can only drink: Coffee, Water</li>
</ul>
<div>
<u>Deduction 6:</u></div>
</div>
<div>
<u><br /></u></div>
<div>
It almost appears as if we hit a wall. However, we know that the Norwegian can only drink either Coffee or Water, which is a 50/50 shot. We have the opportunity to do a<i> hypothetical</i> with good results.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i><b>(water possibility)</b></i></div>
<div>
Since we know that the Blends Smoker lives next to the Water drinker (Clue 15), I figure it would be more interesting to start with this hypothetical. So if the Norwegian of #1 was the water drinker, then #2 * Blue *Blends.Of the remaining nationalities, there is only the Dane who fits that category. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This would mean:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Dane * #2 *Blue *Blends</li>
<ul>
<li>Also ~Cats (clue 17), and (N) Cats (clue 12)</li>
</ul>
<li>(as a result) Swede would be the Bluemaster Smoker</li>
<ul>
<li>And juice drinker (clue 9)</li>
</ul>
<li>(as a result of that)</li>
<ul>
<li>Brit- Drinks: Milk (result)</li>
<ul>
<li>Smokes Pall Mall (result)</li>
</ul>
<li>German- Drinks: Coffee</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Here's how my chart looks:</b></div>
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://i.imgur.com/MhIA1i3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/MhIA1i3.png" height="102" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">Made a mistake. Swede shouldn't have Yellow on there. My bad.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We might then look back at our clues and look for new links given all the information we received:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Clue 5 says the Pall Mall smoker owns the birds:</li>
<ul>
<li>The Brit owns the birds</li>
</ul>
<li>Clue 4 says the person in the green house drinks coffee</li>
<ul>
<li>The German drinks coffee and is in the green house</li>
<ul>
<li>As a result he cannot be house #5 since the white house must be to to his right.</li>
<li>Thus the Swede is in the White house</li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/wYbuUt7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/wYbuUt7.png" height="120" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<ul>
<li>Clue 13 says the Horse owner lives next to the Dunhill smoker.</li>
<ul>
<li>The Norwegian smokes Dunhill and lives at #1, which means our friend the Dane at #2 owns the Horses.</li>
</ul>
<li>Clue 7 says #3 is a milk drinker. Thus, the Brit who drinks milk is in house #3.</li>
<ul>
<li>Brit * #3</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
This also means that the German is at house #4, and the Swede is at #5. We have all the houses all set up. All that remains is the fish and cat.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/uICJ2Oz.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/uICJ2Oz.png" height="122" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<ul>
<li>Clue 12 says that the Blends smoker is next to the Cat owner. Since the Dane is the Blends smoker, and lives in #2, either #1 or #3, must own a cat</li>
<ul>
<li>Since the Brit owns a bird, then that only leaves the Norwegian with the Cat.</li>
<li>The German would be the fish owner.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/7mWn9uV.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/7mWn9uV.png" height="124" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Answer:</b> The German owns the fish.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Double check your answers by seeing if it fits with every one of the clues. </div>
<div>
-----------------------------------------</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Well that's it for the walkthrough of the Einstein Puzzle. I hope you enjoyed it and learned something along the way!</span></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4939517112875247610.post-269339053567978412014-02-26T16:57:00.000-08:002014-03-17T16:52:52.231-07:00Einstein's Puzzle Thorough Walkthrough (Spoilers)- Pt2<b>This is the walkthrough for Einstein's Puzzle. If you haven't read the original puzzle/question, you should go ahead and click on the link below. Below will be the explanation of the method I utilized to solve the puzzle. If you want to avoid spoilers you should view the original question before reading below.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>For Previous parts: <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einsteins-puzzle-thorough-walkthrough_25.html">Part 1</a></b><br />
<b><br /></b><a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/try-einstein-puzzle.html">You can find the Puzzle here.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einstein-puzzle-non-spoiler-answer.html">Skip to here if you just want a spoiler free answer check</a><br />
<br />
<u><b>Walkthrough:</b></u><br />
<br />
So this is simple logic puzzle with no real tricks or second guesses. So all you really need is organization to solve this puzzle. I'll be breaking this walkthrough into parts, so you can try it on your own after reading an article:<br />
<br />
Here's how I solved it.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://i.imgur.com/g0zJ2p2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/g0zJ2p2.jpg" height="400" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A visual depiction of linking.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
-----------------------------------------------------<br />
<div>
So here is my three categories of clues (for your ease of reference)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Direct Link:</b></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Brit * Red House</li>
<li>Swede * Dogs</li>
<li>Dane * Tea</li>
<li>Green * Coffee</li>
<li>Pall Mall * Birds</li>
<li>Yellow * Dunhill</li>
<li>#3 * Milk</li>
<li>Norwegian * #1</li>
<li>Bluemaster * Juice</li>
<li>German * Prince<br /><br /><b>Unlinked:</b></li>
<li>Green (L) White</li>
<li>Blends (N) Cats</li>
<li>Horse (N) Dunhill</li>
<li>Norwegian (N) Blue</li>
<li>Blends (N) Water<br /><br /><b>Negative Link:</b></li>
<li>Green ~ White</li>
<li>Blends ~ Cats</li>
<li>Horse ~ Dunhill</li>
<li>Norwegian ~ Blue</li>
<li>Blends ~ Water</li>
</ol>
<div>
<b>Key:<br />* = linked</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b>(L) = is left of</b></div>
<div>
<b>(N) = is next to<br />~ = Is not linked to</b></div>
<div>
<br />
The reason I do this is to make referencing and understanding the clues much faster and more efficient. I refer to each of these clues by #. For instance the link between house #3 and Milk is Clue 7.<br />
<b>----------------------------------------------------</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
So here's when I finally get to the step that you probably jumped to on your first attempt of this problem. The filling out of the chart. I start by filling in the Direct clues:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/MJcfuIh.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/MJcfuIh.png" height="131" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Which doesn't provide us too much for a very specific reason: Our grid here makes it quite difficult to enter information for links between things that are not tied down by nationality. Where do you put the clue about how "Green * Coffee"? </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So this is where a lot of organized thoughts stop, and people start to flail. But not us! We shall keep this grid, and try to solve it. How? By working with what we can learn about each Nationality!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-------------------------</div>
<div>
<b>I will demonstrate the method I utilized and my thought process with a simple 4 step process:</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Step 1</b>: Lets start with the Brit. What do we know about him? </div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Brit</li>
<ul>
<li>Red House (Clue 1)</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Step 2</b>: Hmm, that doesn't help us much. But then we remember that all things that are linked to the other Nationalities are not linked to the Brit. So we get:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Brit</li>
<ul>
<li>Red House</li>
<li>~Tea (Clue 3)</li>
<li>~Dogs (Clue 2)</li>
<li>~#1 (Clue 8)</li>
<li>~Prince (Clue 10)</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Step 3:</b> Ok, so that tells us a bit more, but what else can we find out about the Brit? Well, since he is linked to the red house, then only things linked to "Red House" will affect him. Everything that effects houses of other colors are not attributed to the Brit.</div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Brit</li>
<ul>
<li>Red House</li>
<li>~Tea</li>
<li>~Dogs</li>
<li>~#1</li>
<li>~Prince</li>
<li>~ Coffee (Clue 4)</li>
<li>~ Dunhill (Clue 6)</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Step 4</b>: Ok, is that absolutely ALL I can get from it? Well, there are those "Unlinked clues". Maybe I can add those in:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Brit</li>
<ul>
<li>Red House</li>
<li>~Tea</li>
<li>~ Coffee</li>
<li>~Dogs</li>
<li>~Prince</li>
<li>~ Dunhill</li>
<li>~#1</li>
<li>~(L) White</li>
<li>~(N) Norwegian</li>
</ul>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>I repeat this process with each person of Nationality:</b></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Swede</li>
<ul>
<li>Dogs (Clue 2)</li>
<li>~Red (Clue 1)</li>
<li>~Tea (Clue 3)</li>
<li>~Prince (Clue 10)</li>
<li>~Pall Mall (Clue 5)</li>
<li>~#1 (Clue 8)</li>
<li>~(N) Blends (Clue 12)</li>
<li>~(N) Dunhill (Clue 14)</li>
</ul>
<li>Dane</li>
<ul>
<li>Tea (Clue 3)</li>
<li>~Red (Clue 1)</li>
<li>~Green (Clue 4)</li>
<li>~Dogs (Clue 2)</li>
<li>~#1 (Clue 8)</li>
<li>~#3 (Clue 7)</li>
<li>~Prince (Clue 10)</li>
<li>~Bluemaster (Clue 9)</li>
<li>~(N) Blends (Clue 15)</li>
</ul>
<li>Norwegian</li>
<ul>
<li>#1 (Clue 8)</li>
<li>(N) Blue (Clue 14)</li>
<li>~Blue (Clue 19)</li>
<li>~Red (Clue 1)</li>
<li>~Dogs (Clue 2)</li>
<li>~Prince (Clue 10)</li>
<li>~Tea (Clue 3)</li>
<li>~Milk (Clue 7)</li>
</ul>
<li>German</li>
<ul>
<li>Prince (Clue 10)</li>
<li>~#1 (Clue 8)</li>
<li>~Red (Clue 1)</li>
<li>~Yellow (Clue 6)</li>
<li>~Tea (Clue 3)</li>
<li>~Juice (Clue 9)</li>
<li>~Birds (Clue 5)</li>
<li>~Dogs (Clue 2)</li>
<li>~(N) Cats (Clue 12)</li>
<li>~(N) Horses (Clue 13)</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
------------------------------</div>
</div>
<div>
Whew, that took a while. But now its time to do the fun part with the analysis. It's a good time to refresh our memory about Sherlock Holmes' famous line about deduction:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"How often have I said to you that <u>when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, <i>however improbable</i>, must be the truth</u>?"<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span> <i>The Sign of the Four</i>, ch. 6 (1890)</blockquote>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So how does this phrase pertain? Well, with each of our gentlemen above, we have eliminated the impossible. So what remains? Does it provide us with any solid facts?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
No? Well lets look at what remains for each in each category:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Brit-</li>
<ul>
<li>Drinks- Milk, Water, Juice</li>
<li>Pets- Cats, Horses, Birds, Fish</li>
<li>Smokes- Pall Mall, Blends, Bluemaster</li>
<li>House Color- Red</li>
<li>House Number- #2, #3, #4, #5</li>
</ul>
<li>Swede-</li>
<ul>
<li>Drinks- Coffee, Milk, Juice, Water</li>
<li>Pets- Dogs</li>
<li>Smokes- Dunhill, Blends, Bluemaster</li>
<li>House Color- Green, Yellow, Blue, White</li>
<li>House Number- #2, #3, #4, #5</li>
</ul>
<li>Dane- </li>
<ul>
<li>Drinks- Tea</li>
<li>Pets-Birds, Fish, Cat, Horses</li>
<li>Smokes- Pall Mall, Dunhill, Blends</li>
<li>House Color- Yellow, Blue, White</li>
<li>House Number- #2, #4, #5</li>
</ul>
<li>Norwegian-</li>
<ul>
<li>Drinks- Coffee, Juice, Water</li>
<li>Pets-Birds, Fish, Cat, Horses</li>
<li>Smokes- Pall Mall, Dunhill, Blends, Bluemaster</li>
<li>House Color- Green, Yellow, White</li>
<li>House Number- #1</li>
</ul>
<li>German-</li>
<ul>
<li>Drinks- Coffee, Milk, Water</li>
<li>Pets-Fish, Cat, Horse</li>
<li>Smokes- Prince</li>
<li>House Color- Blue, White, Green</li>
<li>House Number- #2, #3, #4, #5</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
--------------------------------------</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Here's your chance to go and try to solve it for yourself. If you're eager to see how it is solved, continue onto <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einsteins-puzzle-thorough-walkthrough_27.html">part 3</a>! </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Or double check your answer (spoiler-free) <a href="http://methodofthought.blogspot.com/2014/02/einstein-puzzle-non-spoiler-answer.html">here</a></span></b></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06896831035438123111noreply@blogger.com0